›››
Loading...
Loading...
Current MSFT options analysis: Weak Signal for Selling premium on MSFT. This MSFT options page updates daily with IV rank, VRP, expected move, and strategy picks.
No strategies meet current entry criteria.
Microsoft (MSFT) operates in the Information Technology sector and has actively traded listed options. MSFT scores 64/100 for premium selling conditions. MSFT put/call walls.
MSFT Edge Score: 64/100 — data coverage is strong, but current trading conditions are unfavorable.
No strategies meet entry criteria. Consider waiting for better conditions.
MSFT See full analysis →MSFT conditions are unfavorable — but other tickers may have edge today
MSFT’s setup is weak today. The Scanner surfaces S&P 500 tickers with positive VRP, high IV Rank, or active earnings crush — check those before forcing a trade on MSFT.
Weak — Unfavorable for premium selling
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Conditions are weak — explore alternatives or wait for a better setup.
Strategy
Flow & Events
Planned
IV curve across expirations
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
Microsoft is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 1.00. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 43.7% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 30.6%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a information technology stock like MSFT, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
Over the past 22 trading days, MSFT's volatility has been dropping sharply. The RV ratio moved from a high of 0.94 down to the current 1.00 — a significant compression that often precedes favorable premium selling windows. During this period, 22 out of 22 days (100%) showed conditions favorable for sellers (ratio below 1.0). This kind of rapid vol compression in a information technology name like MSFT typically means options haven't fully repriced lower yet — creating a temporary edge.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect MSFT to move approximately ±$11.58 (2.8%) per day and ±$25.90 (6.2%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $421.07, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
VolRadar's top-ranked strategy for MSFT is no premium selling edge. Negative VRP (-0.1%). Options are priced below realized volatility — no edge for sellers. This assessment is based on current VRP, IV Rank, realized volatility regime, and earnings proximity. Conditions update daily after market close.
VolRadar tracks MSFT daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). See the disclaimer for the full risk and regulatory notice.
More about MSFT
Microsoft currently shows a weak premium selling signal because negative VRP. Consider waiting for conditions to improve. The VRP Analysis page tracks historical premium edge trends that may signal when conditions are turning.
Microsoft's 5-day expected move is ±6.2% (±$25.90 from $421.07). A wide expected range reflects elevated realized volatility. See the Expected Move page for strike placement guidance and probability analysis.
VolRadar tracks Microsoft across 10 analysis dimensions updated daily after market close. The premium selling signal combines VRP edge, volatility regime, IV Rank, earnings proximity, and market-wide conditions into a single actionable verdict. Each sub-page goes deeper: VRP Analysis for the implied-vs-realized spread, IV Analysis for peer comparisons, Expected Move for strike placement, Earnings Crush for event history, and the Strategy Builder for modeling specific trades.
Microsoft currently shows a weak premium selling signal because negative VRP (-0.1pp). Consider waiting for conditions to improve.
Microsoft's volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 1.00.
Microsoft's snapshot: IV Rank 63% (elevated premiums), VRP -0.1pp (no edge), RV Ratio 1.00 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for Microsoft: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Key risks for Microsoft right now: negative VRP (-0.1pp) means options are underpricing actual movement, removing the statistical edge sellers rely on. These risks are worse when combined — for example, selling into earnings with negative VRP removes both your statistical edge and your safety margin. Use VolRadar's sub-pages to contextualize: VRP Analysis for edge confirmation, IV Analysis for premium adequacy, and Expected Move for strike distance guidance.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Microsoft has a 1-day expected move of ±$11.58 (±2.8%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$25.90 (±6.2%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $395 and $447 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.
Daily setups from 500+ tickers — not just this one.
EOD-computed Edge Score, VRP, earnings gates. Built by a premium seller, for premium sellers.
ORATS + CBOE data · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime
Spread 0.0pp — realized movement is exceeding IV. Short-premium edge has flipped; defined-risk only or stand aside.