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No strategies meet current entry criteria.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) operates in the ETF - Index sector and has actively traded listed options. SPY scores 58/100 for premium selling conditions. See Walls for support and resistance levels.
SPY Edge Score: 58/100 — data coverage is strong, but current trading conditions are unfavorable.
No strategies meet entry criteria. Consider waiting for better conditions.
See full analysis →SPY conditions are unfavorable — but other tickers may have edge today
When conditions are weak for one stock, others in the S&P 500 often show strong setups. Check today's top-ranked candidates instead of forcing a trade here.
Why two RV values? Yang-Zhang RV (759.7%, OHLC-based) captures intraday volatility, while ORATS RV (20.0%, close-to-close) uses only closing prices. For SPY, YZ is higher — suggesting significant intraday movement not captured in closing prices. VRP is computed using ORATS RV to match the IV source. Gap: 739.7pp. Full IV Analysis →
Weak — Unfavorable for premium selling
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Conditions are weak — explore alternatives or wait for a better setup.
Volatility
IV Rank, IV vs RV comparison
Volatility Risk Premium edge
Volatility smile & skew shifts
IV curve across expirations
Strategy
P&L calculator for any strategy
Ranked strategies & selling conditions
Best CC strikes, premiums & scores
CSP → assignment → CC calculator
Early assignment probability & alerts
Flow & Events
Support & resistance from OI
IV crush & historical earnings
Price range & strike placement
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 0.98. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 759.7% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 437.6%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a etf - index stock like SPY, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
SPY has maintained a consistent volatility profile over the past 13 trading days. The RV ratio has held in a range of 0.03 to 0.03, with 100% of days in seller-favorable territory. Stable regimes can persist for weeks in etf - index stocks, making SPY a relatively predictable candidate for premium selling strategies during this period.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect SPY to move approximately ±$313.08 (47.9%) per day and ±$700.07 (107.0%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $654.25, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
Current conditions on SPY point toward range-bound strategies like iron condor (conservative). Normal volatility regime (ratio 0.98). Range-bound strategies with conservative sizing. Iron Condor (Conservative) benefits from time decay while defining maximum risk on both sides — a structure that suits SPY's current volatility profile where directional edge is limited but overall conditions are acceptable for premium collection.
VolRadar tracks SPY daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). All analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.
More about SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently shows a weak premium selling signal. Consider waiting for conditions to improve. The VRP Analysis page tracks historical premium edge trends that may signal when conditions are turning.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's IV Rank is 31%, indicating relatively cheap options. While premiums are thinner, low IV can present opportunities for option buyers or for sellers who focus on probability rather than absolute premium. See the IV Analysis page for detailed breakdown.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's 5-day expected move is ±107.0% (±$700.07 from $654.25). A wide expected range reflects elevated realized volatility. See the Expected Move page for strike placement guidance and probability analysis.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently shows a weak premium selling signal because multiple factors are unfavorable. Consider waiting for conditions to improve.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 0.98.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's snapshot: IV Rank 31% (average premiums), VRP +0.5pp (slight edge), RV Ratio 0.98 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Every options trade carries risk: undefined-risk strategies (naked puts/calls) expose you to large losses on gap moves, while defined-risk strategies cap losses but reduce premium. For SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, current conditions require careful selection — check the signal strength before entering positions — always size positions so no single trade risks more than 1-3% of your account. Use the Strategy Builder to model worst-case scenarios before entering.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has a 1-day expected move of ±$313.08 (±47.9%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$700.07 (±107.0%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $-46 and $1354 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.