Loading...
Free Tool · No Signup Required
VolRadar Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for any stock using implied or realized volatility. Essential for selecting strikes outside the probable move.
Built for premium sellers who place short strikes outside the 1 SD range. The calculator answers one question in two seconds: where will this stock most likely be at expiration, and where should I put my strikes to stay outside the probable move? Free, no signup, ticker lookup or manual input.
Educational analysis — not investment advice. VolRadar surfaces options market data and signals; all trading decisions are your own. See our full disclaimer.
Try:
Enter a ticker to calculate its expected move
See the 1 SD and 2 SD price ranges for any stock. Pick a ticker above or use Manual Input to calculate with your own numbers.
Related Free Tools
What Is Expected Move in Options Trading?
The expected move is a volatility-derived price range showing how far a stock is likely to trade over a given period. A 1 standard deviation (1 SD) range covers approximately 68% of probable outcomes — meaning there is a 68% chance the stock stays within those boundaries. A 2 SD range covers about 95% of outcomes, providing a wider safety margin. Premium sellers use this metric to select short strikes outside the probable range, increasing their probability of profit.
How to Calculate Expected Move
The standard formula is: EM = Price × Volatility × √(DTE / 365). For example, a $400 stock with 35% IV and 45 days to expiration: $400 × 0.35 × √(45/365) = $49.13. This gives the 1 SD range. Multiply by 2 for the 2 SD range. An alternative method uses the ATM straddle price multiplied by 0.85, which reflects real market pricing more directly. Both approaches give similar results — this calculator supports both via ticker lookup and manual input.
IV vs RV: Which Volatility to Use?
Implied Volatility (IV) is forward-looking — it is derived from current options prices and reflects what the market expects will happen. Realized Volatility (RV) is backward-looking — it measures actual past price changes over a specific window (typically 20 trading days). The difference between IV and RV is the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP). When IV exceeds RV, options are "expensive" relative to history, which is favorable for premium sellers. This calculator uses IV (30d) by default for expected move. When a ticker is looked up, the volatility source may vary. VolRadar's ticker pages use RV-based expected move, so comparing both reveals the pricing edge.
How Premium Sellers Use This Range
When selling options, placing your short strike outside the 1 SD boundary gives you roughly a 68% or higher probability of profit. For short puts, sell below the lower bound; for short calls, sell above the upper bound. Iron condor traders use both bounds to define their range — short put at or below the 1 SD lower, short call at or above the 1 SD upper. More conservative traders target strikes beyond 1.5 SD. The key insight is that markets tend to overestimate future volatility (VRP), so selling premium at these levels historically has positive value.
Price Range Changes Around Earnings
The implied price range widens before earnings as IV rises in anticipation of the announcement. After the earnings call, IV typically collapses (IV crush), significantly reducing the expected move. This creates both opportunity and risk for premium sellers: the elevated premiums are tempting, but the actual move can exceed expectations. The most common approach is to either close positions before earnings or specifically sell the earnings event with appropriately sized positions. VolRadar's earnings-adjusted metrics help quantify this risk.
Who uses VolRadar’s Expected Move Calculator
Premium sellers — place short strikes outside the 1 SD range. Selling puts below the 1 SD lower bound or calls above the 1 SD upper bound targets ~68% probability of profit at expiration.
Iron condor traders — use both 1 SD bounds to define the inner short strikes, then add long protection a few strikes wider. Cross-reference with the VolRadar Scanner for tickers with elevated VRP and stable term structure.
Earnings traders — check the expected move 1–2 days before an earnings report to see what magnitude the market is pricing in. If the actual reaction is smaller than expected, IV crush plus contained price movement makes a profitable straddle/strangle short.
Long-options buyers — in reverse. Use the expected move to set realistic price targets for long calls, long puts, and debit spreads. If your target is inside 1 SD, the trade has positive expectancy; if it’s beyond 2 SD, you’re paying for an unlikely outcome.
Wheel traders — check the expected move before opening a cash-secured put. Strike at or just below the 1 SD lower bound gives a balance of premium yield and assignment probability that suits the wheel rotation. See Best Wheel Stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected move in options?
Expected move is the predicted price range for a stock over a given period, derived from implied or realized volatility. A 1 standard deviation (1 SD) move covers approximately 68% of probable outcomes. A 2 SD move covers about 95%.
How do you calculate expected move?
Expected Move = Stock Price × Volatility × √(DTE / 365). For example, a $400 stock with 35% IV and 45 DTE: $400 × 0.35 × √(45/365) = $49.13. You can also estimate from the ATM straddle price × 0.85. For straddle-based estimation, use bid/ask prices from your broker — this calculator uses the IV-based formula instead.
What is the difference between IV and RV for expected move?
Implied Volatility (IV) is forward-looking, derived from options prices — it reflects what the market expects. Realized Volatility (RV) is backward-looking, calculated from actual past price changes. IV often overstates the move (volatility risk premium), which is why premium sellers profit.
How do premium sellers use expected move?
Premium sellers place short strikes outside the expected move range. Selling puts below the 1 SD lower bound or calls above the 1 SD upper bound targets roughly 68%+ probability of profit. Iron condor traders use both bounds to define their range.
What happens to expected move around earnings?
Expected move increases before earnings because IV rises in anticipation of the announcement. After earnings, IV typically crashes (IV crush), reducing the expected move significantly. This is why selling premium before earnings can be risky despite high premiums.
Is 1 SD or 2 SD better for strike selection?
1 SD (~68% probability) is the standard for most premium selling strategies. 2 SD (~95%) is more conservative but collects less premium. Most theta gang traders target strikes between 1 and 1.5 SD out.
How accurate is the expected move?
The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Markets exceed 1 SD about 32% of the time and 2 SD about 5% of the time. Black swan events, earnings surprises, and regime changes can cause moves well beyond 2 SD.
Why does expected move change with time period?
Expected move scales with the square root of time, not linearly. A 45-day expected move is not 45× the daily move — it is √45 ≈ 6.7× the daily move. This is because daily returns are somewhat independent, so risk grows slower than time.
Can I use this calculator for earnings plays?
Yes, but be aware that pre-earnings IV is elevated. The expected move shown reflects current volatility, which includes earnings premium. For post-earnings expected move, you would need to estimate the post-IV-crush volatility level.
Is this expected move calculator free?
Yes, the expected move calculator is free with no signup required. Ticker lookup uses 5 free lookups per day (15 with a free account). Manual mode is unlimited with all periods. Ticker lookup includes 1d and 5d expected moves for free, with 21d-60d periods (the ranges premium sellers use for strike selection) available with Starter.
Data sourced from ORATS, updated daily after market close. VolRadar provides educational analytics — not financial advice. Options involve significant risk of loss. Read our investment disclaimer.
What to do next
Founder & Options Analyst
Premium seller since 2018. Built VolRadar to replace the 55-minute evening research routine with a 30-second morning check.