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No strategies meet current entry criteria.
AES Corporation (AES) is a Utilities stock with actively traded listed options. IV Rank 29% is 3pp above the Utilities sector median of 26%. See Walls for support and resistance levels.
AES Edge Score: 58/100 — data coverage is strong, but current trading conditions are unfavorable.
VRP is marginal. The best trade today might be no trade.
See full analysis →AES conditions are unfavorable — but other tickers may have edge today
When conditions are weak for one stock, others in the S&P 500 often show strong setups. Check today's top-ranked candidates instead of forcing a trade here.
Why two RV values? Yang-Zhang RV (41.8%, OHLC-based) captures intraday volatility, while ORATS RV (22.6%, close-to-close) uses only closing prices. For AES, YZ is higher — suggesting significant intraday movement not captured in closing prices. VRP is computed using ORATS RV to match the IV source. Gap: 19.2pp. Full IV Analysis →
Weak — Unfavorable for premium selling
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Conditions are weak — explore alternatives or wait for a better setup.
Volatility
IV Rank, IV vs RV comparison
Volatility Risk Premium edge
Volatility smile & skew shifts
IV curve across expirations
Strategy
P&L calculator for any strategy
Ranked strategies & selling conditions
Best CC strikes, premiums & scores
CSP → assignment → CC calculator
Early assignment probability & alerts
Flow & Events
Support & resistance from OI
IV crush & historical earnings
Price range & strike placement
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
AES Corporation is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 0.95. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 41.8% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 33.8%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a utilities stock like AES, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
Looking at the past 18 trading days, AES's RV ratio has been trending lower. The ratio ranged from 0.98 to 0.87, with the current reading of 0.95 near the lower end. 18 of 18 days showed seller-favorable conditions. A gradual decline is often more sustainable than a sharp drop, suggesting AES may remain in this lower-vol regime for a while.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect AES to move approximately ±$0.37 (2.6%) per day and ±$0.84 (5.9%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $14.23, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
Current conditions on AES point toward range-bound strategies like iron condor (conservative). Normal volatility regime (ratio 0.95). Range-bound strategies with conservative sizing. Iron Condor (Conservative) benefits from time decay while defining maximum risk on both sides — a structure that suits AES's current volatility profile where directional edge is limited but overall conditions are acceptable for premium collection.
Utilities are traditionally low-vol defensive plays, but interest rate sensitivity can create unexpected moves. AES specifically an Utilities sector component tracked by VolRadar. Understanding sector-level volatility dynamics helps premium sellers diversify their positions across different correlation regimes.
VolRadar tracks AES daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). All analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.
More about AES
AES Corporation currently shows a weak premium selling signal. Consider waiting for conditions to improve. The VRP Analysis page tracks historical premium edge trends that may signal when conditions are turning.
AES Corporation's IV Rank is 29%, indicating relatively cheap options. While premiums are thinner, low IV can present opportunities for option buyers or for sellers who focus on probability rather than absolute premium. See the IV Analysis page for detailed breakdown.
AES Corporation's 5-day expected move is ±5.9% (±$0.84 from $14.23). A wide expected range reflects elevated realized volatility. See the Expected Move page for strike placement guidance and probability analysis.
AES Corporation currently shows a weak premium selling signal because multiple factors are unfavorable. Consider waiting for conditions to improve.
AES Corporation's volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 0.95.
AES Corporation's snapshot: IV Rank 29% (low premiums), VRP +1.1pp (slight edge), RV Ratio 0.95 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for AES Corporation: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Every options trade carries risk: undefined-risk strategies (naked puts/calls) expose you to large losses on gap moves, while defined-risk strategies cap losses but reduce premium. For AES Corporation, current conditions require careful selection — check the signal strength before entering positions — always size positions so no single trade risks more than 1-3% of your account. Use the Strategy Builder to model worst-case scenarios before entering.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, AES Corporation has a 1-day expected move of ±$0.37 (±2.6%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$0.84 (±5.9%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $13 and $15 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
Higher RV Ratio (closer to 1.0) means IV barely exceeds RV, resulting in slimmer VRP edge. Lower RV Ratio = wider gap between IV and actual movement = stronger seller edge.
View all Utilities tickers →More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.