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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. — How far can AJG move? Set strikes outside the expected range.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a Financials stock with actively traded listed options. Its RV-based expected move is ±$13.36 (6.2%) this week, calculated from 20-day Yang-Zhang realized volatility rather than inflated option premiums. RV Ratio 0.98 is above the Financials median of 0.77 — more volatile than peers. Neutral VRP supports defined-risk structures at or near the expected boundary. See IV Analysis for volatility context.
Price Range Forecast
Current: $216.89The expected move shows the range the market is pricing in for a given timeframe. Selling options outside this range gives you a statistical probability advantage.
Compare expected move to your strike selection — selling beyond 1σ means the market expects your trade to win.
EM = Price × RV 20d × √(DTE / 252)Current price, Yang-Zhang 20-day realized volatility, days to expiration (trading days)
Yang-Zhang OHLC-based realized volatility data. Note: the standalone Expected Move Calculator uses the IV-based formula (Price × IV × √(DTE/365)) — ticker EM pages use the RV-based formula.
Expected move assumes log-normal distribution. Actual moves can exceed the range, especially around events. The EM is a 1-standard-deviation estimate (~68% probability).
Uses options market pricing (IV 30d ATM) instead of historical movement. When VRP is positive, the IV-based range is wider than the RV-based range above — the difference is your statistical edge.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s 5-day expected move of ±6.2% (±$13.36) is wider than typical, indicating elevated realized volatility. This translates to a probable range of $204–$230 over the next week at one standard deviation (68% probability). A wide expected move means more premium is available for sellers placing strikes outside the range, but it also means the stock has been making larger moves recently — position sizing should account for the increased realized risk.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s expected move measures the statistically probable price range over different time periods, derived from Yang-Zhang realized volatility. Premium sellers use the expected move to position short strikes outside the probable range — if the stock stays within bounds, the option expires worthless and the seller keeps the premium. With current 20-day realized volatility at 43.7%, the expected move provides a data-driven framework for strike distance selection rather than relying on arbitrary delta targets.
Free embeddable tool: Expected Move Calculator — add interactive expected move data to any site. No signup, no API key.
*Assumes lognormal distribution. Real markets exhibit fat tails and skew — actual containment may differ, especially around earnings or macro events.
AJG at $216.89 — 1σ range over 7d:$206–$228
Yang-Zhang 20d RV (43.7%) · EM = Price × RV × √(t/252)
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. has a 1-day expected move of ±$5.97 (±2.8%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$13.36 (±6.2%). This means the stock is statistically expected to trade between $204 and $230 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
For premium selling, place short put strikes below the 1σ (one standard deviation) expected move lower bound — currently around $204 for a 5-day trade. This targets roughly 68% or higher probability of profit. Conservative traders use the 2σ boundary for 95% probability, though premiums collected will be smaller. Most theta gang traders target the 1.0–1.5σ range, corresponding to approximately 0.20–0.30 delta.
The expected move formula is Price × Volatility × √(time). VolRadar uses two conventions: the range table uses RV-based EM = Price × RV × √(t/252) with Yang-Zhang realized volatility (trading days), while the IV-based calculator uses EM = Price × IV × √(DTE/365) with ORATS 30-day implied volatility (calendar days). The RV-based table accounts for overnight gaps and intraday movement via Yang-Zhang, making it more accurate for stocks with significant pre/post-market activity like Arthur J. Gallagher & Co..
The expected move shows a statistically probable range based on past realized volatility, but the future can differ from the past. The main risks: (1) the range underestimates tail moves — 32% of the time, the stock moves outside the 1-standard-deviation boundary; (2) volatility clustering means quiet periods can end abruptly; (3) overnight gaps from news or earnings are not well captured by historical RV. Always cross-reference expected move with IV Analysis for premium adequacy and VRP for edge confirmation before placing trades.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s expected move is wider than usual because it's derived from realized volatility, which reflects actual recent price movement. The stock's recent realized volatility at 43.7% is driving the wider range. A wider expected move means premium sellers can place strikes further OTM while still collecting meaningful premium — but the wider range also signals genuine risk.
Most premium sellers target 1σ (one standard deviation, ~68% probability of profit) as the sweet spot — it balances meaningful credit with reasonable safety. 2σ (95%) is more conservative but collects significantly less premium. For Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., theta gang traders selling premium typically place strikes 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations OTM, which corresponds to roughly 0.20–0.30 delta.