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Earnings within a week — IV crush risk
Air Products (APD) is a Materials stock with actively traded listed options. IV Rank 21% is 9pp below the Materials sector median of 30%. See Walls for support and resistance levels.
APD Edge Score: 50/100 — data coverage is strong, but current trading conditions are unfavorable.
Earnings in 7d. The best trade today might be no trade.
See full analysis →APD conditions are unfavorable — but other tickers may have edge today
When conditions are weak for one stock, others in the S&P 500 often show strong setups. Check today's top-ranked candidates instead of forcing a trade here.
Why two RV values? Yang-Zhang RV (30.5%, OHLC-based) captures intraday volatility, while ORATS RV (25.5%, close-to-close) uses only closing prices. For APD, YZ is higher — suggesting significant intraday movement not captured in closing prices. VRP is computed using ORATS RV to match the IV source. Gap: 5.0pp. Full IV Analysis →
Weak — Unfavorable for premium selling
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Conditions are weak — explore alternatives or wait for a better setup.
Volatility
IV Rank, IV vs RV comparison
Volatility Risk Premium edge
Volatility smile & skew shifts
IV curve across expirations
Strategy
P&L calculator for any strategy
Ranked strategies & selling conditions
Best CC strikes, premiums & scores
CSP → assignment → CC calculator
Early assignment probability & alerts
Flow & Events
Support & resistance from OI
IV crush & historical earnings
Price range & strike placement
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
Air Products is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 0.91. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 30.5% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 28.7%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a materials stock like APD, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
APD has maintained a consistent volatility profile over the past 18 trading days. The RV ratio has held in a range of 0.96 to 0.99, with 100% of days in seller-favorable territory. Stable regimes can persist for weeks in materials stocks, making APD a relatively predictable candidate for premium selling strategies during this period.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect APD to move approximately ±$5.64 (1.9%) per day and ±$12.61 (4.3%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $293.04, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
VolRadar's top-ranked strategy for APD is consider waiting. Normal volatility regime (ratio 0.91). Range-bound strategies with conservative sizing. Earnings proximity adds uncertainty. This assessment is based on current VRP, IV Rank, realized volatility regime, and earnings proximity. Conditions update daily after market close.
APD has earnings in roughly 7 trading days. While not immediate, this proximity means implied volatility may begin expanding as the market prices in event risk. Premium sellers should factor this into DTE selection — positions expiring before earnings avoid the binary risk entirely, while positions spanning the event carry significantly higher uncertainty.
Materials stocks are commodity-sensitive with volatility tied to global demand and supply chain dynamics. APD specifically a Materials sector component tracked by VolRadar. Understanding sector-level volatility dynamics helps premium sellers diversify their positions across different correlation regimes.
VolRadar tracks APD daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). All analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.
More about APD
Air Products currently shows a weak premium selling signal because earnings in 7 days, low IV Rank. Consider waiting for conditions to improve. The VRP Analysis page tracks historical premium edge trends that may signal when conditions are turning.
Air Products's IV Rank is 21%, indicating relatively cheap options. While premiums are thinner, low IV can present opportunities for option buyers or for sellers who focus on probability rather than absolute premium. See the IV Analysis page for detailed breakdown.
Air Products has earnings in 7 days. Earnings are the largest source of gap risk for option positions. The Earnings Crush page shows historical post-earnings IV crush patterns, while the Strategy Builder can help model defined-risk positions around the announcement.
Air Products currently shows a weak premium selling signal because earnings in 7 days, low IV Rank (21%). Consider waiting for conditions to improve.
Air Products's volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 0.91.
Air Products's snapshot: IV Rank 21% (low premiums), VRP +2.5pp (options overpriced), RV Ratio 0.91 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for Air Products: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Key risks for Air Products right now: earnings in 7 days — the largest source of overnight gap risk that can blow through short strikes. These risks are worse when combined — for example, selling into earnings with negative VRP removes both your statistical edge and your safety margin. Use VolRadar's sub-pages to contextualize: VRP Analysis for edge confirmation, IV Analysis for premium adequacy, and Expected Move for strike distance guidance.
Air Products has earnings in approximately 7 days, the largest source of gap risk for option positions. Three VolRadar pages are especially relevant: the Earnings Crush page shows Air Products's historical win rate and implied-vs-actual move pattern; the Premium Selling page reflects whether the signal accounts for event risk; and the Strategy Builder can model defined-risk positions around the announcement.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Air Products has a 1-day expected move of ±$5.64 (±1.9%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$12.61 (±4.3%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $280 and $306 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
Higher RV Ratio (closer to 1.0) means IV barely exceeds RV, resulting in slimmer VRP edge. Lower RV Ratio = wider gap between IV and actual movement = stronger seller edge.
View all Materials tickers →More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.