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Positive VRP and elevated IVR support selling premium; flat Term Structure.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. IV Rank 62% is 30pp above the Industrials sector median of 32%. See Premium Selling for trade setup.
CAT Edge Score: 71/100 — one of today's strongest setups for premium selling.
Consider Covered Call (defined risk) at 28d to earnings.
Build Trade →Why two RV values? Yang-Zhang RV (42.1%, OHLC-based) captures intraday volatility, while ORATS RV (41.5%, close-to-close) uses only closing prices. For CAT, YZ is higher — suggesting significant intraday movement not captured in closing prices. VRP is computed using ORATS RV to match the IV source. Gap: 0.6pp. Full IV Analysis →
Earnings impact: Raw VRP (+4.0pp) includes an IV premium from upcoming earnings (28d). Excluding this premium, VRP is -0.5pp. The 5pp gap is earnings-driven — not a structural edge.
Strong — Favorable (earnings-driven edge)
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Strong setup detected. Review the Covered Call and build your trade.
Volatility
IV Rank, IV vs RV comparison
Volatility Risk Premium edge
Volatility smile & skew shifts
IV curve across expirations
Strategy
P&L calculator for any strategy
Ranked strategies & selling conditions
Best CC strikes, premiums & scores
CSP → assignment → CC calculator
Early assignment probability & alerts
Flow & Events
Support & resistance from OI
IV crush & historical earnings
Price range & strike placement
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
Caterpillar Inc. is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 0.91. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 42.1% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 33.3%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a industrials stock like CAT, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
CAT has maintained a consistent volatility profile over the past 20 trading days. The RV ratio has held in a range of 1.06 to 1.27, with 0% of days in seller-favorable territory. Stable regimes can persist for weeks in industrials stocks, making CAT a relatively predictable candidate for premium selling strategies during this period.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect CAT to move approximately ±$19.07 (2.6%) per day and ±$42.65 (5.9%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $718.65, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
Current conditions on CAT point toward range-bound strategies like iron condor (conservative). Normal volatility regime (ratio 0.91). Range-bound strategies with conservative sizing. Iron Condor (Conservative) benefits from time decay while defining maximum risk on both sides — a structure that suits CAT's current volatility profile where directional edge is limited but overall conditions are acceptable for premium collection.
Industrial stocks reflect economic cycle expectations, with volatility rising during recession fears. CAT specifically an Industrials sector component tracked by VolRadar. Understanding sector-level volatility dynamics helps premium sellers diversify their positions across different correlation regimes.
VolRadar tracks CAT daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). All analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.
More about CAT
Caterpillar Inc. currently shows strong premium selling conditions with an RV Ratio of 0.91. Realized volatility is below implied volatility, suggesting options may be overpriced relative to actual movement. Explore the Premium Selling page for detailed strategy recommendations and the Strategy Builder to model specific trades.
Caterpillar Inc.'s 5-day expected move is ±5.9% (±$42.65 from $718.65). A wide expected range reflects elevated realized volatility. See the Expected Move page for strike placement guidance and probability analysis.
VolRadar tracks Caterpillar Inc. across 10 analysis dimensions updated daily after market close. The premium selling signal combines VRP edge, volatility regime, IV Rank, earnings proximity, and market-wide conditions into a single actionable verdict. Each sub-page goes deeper: VRP Analysis for the implied-vs-realized spread, IV Analysis for peer comparisons, Expected Move for strike placement, Earnings Crush for event history, and the Strategy Builder for modeling specific trades.
Caterpillar Inc. currently shows a strong premium selling signal with an RV Ratio of 0.91. Realized volatility is below implied volatility, suggesting options may be overpriced relative to actual price movement.
Caterpillar Inc.'s volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 0.91.
Caterpillar Inc.'s snapshot: IV Rank 62% (elevated premiums), VRP +4.0pp (options overpriced), RV Ratio 0.91 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for Caterpillar Inc.: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Every options trade carries risk: undefined-risk strategies (naked puts/calls) expose you to large losses on gap moves, while defined-risk strategies cap losses but reduce premium. For Caterpillar Inc., current conditions favor premium sellers, but all options trades carry significant risk — always size positions so no single trade risks more than 1-3% of your account. Use the Strategy Builder to model worst-case scenarios before entering.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Caterpillar Inc. has a 1-day expected move of ±$19.07 (±2.6%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$42.65 (±5.9%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $676 and $761 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
Higher RV Ratio (closer to 1.0) means IV barely exceeds RV, resulting in slimmer VRP edge. Lower RV Ratio = wider gap between IV and actual movement = stronger seller edge.
View all Industrials tickers →More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.