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CMS Energy — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
CMS Energy (CMS) is a Utilities stock with actively traded listed options. IV dropped an average of -7% after earnings across 12 events (42% seller win rate). The market only priced in 0.85x the actual move — earnings tend to surprise beyond expectations. A mixed pattern — event-driven setups here need tighter risk controls. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Avoid short premium into earnings.
Actual moves tend to exceed implied — prefer defined-risk strategies (iron condors with wide wings) or reduced position size.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
CMS may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →CMS actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied — selling premium through the event carries elevated risk.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓Bottom line: Despite consistent IV crush, CMS's actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied. Premium selling through earnings has been a losing strategy — consider long-vol structures or staying out of the event entirely.
| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±1.1% | +2.2% | -17% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.0% | +0.8% | -2% | WIN |
| Q3 2025 | ±0.9% | +2.2% | -3% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±1.0% | +0.7% | -9% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 12 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 12 quarters →Based on 12 quarters of CMS earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock exceeded expected move 58% of the time — selling premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock moved beyond expected 58% of the time — realized moves large enough to profit from long premium.
Avg Implied
±1.1%
Avg Actual
±1.3%
Quarters
12
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
CMS Energy's earnings history shows the stock has exceeded its options-implied move in 58% of recent announcements — the opposite of what premium sellers want. When a stock regularly moves more than the market's implied range, selling straddles or strangles through earnings becomes a losing proposition over time. CMS Energy's average IV crush of only 6.6% is insufficient to offset the instances where actual gap moves exceeded the straddle breakeven. Unless the current setup offers an unusually wide implied move premium relative to historical actual moves, earnings premium selling on CMS Energy is better avoided.
CMS Energy's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 41.7% and average crush of 6.6%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
CMS Energy's earn effect of 4.00× ranks among the highest in its sector, meaning the stock's post-earnings gap significantly exceeds normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are the most impactful events on the options calendar — IV ramps sharply in the 1-2 weeks before, and the crush (or expansion) after is dramatic. For premium sellers targeting CMS Energy's earnings, the large earn effect means more premium is available to collect, but the risk of a move exceeding the expected range is correspondingly higher. Defined-risk structures are essential.
CMS Energy has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 41.7% of its last 12 earnings cycles. This below-average win rate suggests caution — CMS Energy frequently moves more than the market expects.
CMS Energy's average post-earnings IV crush is 6.6%. This relatively small crush means limited premium available to capture — transaction costs and slippage can eat into thin margins.
CMS Energy's earn effect of 4.00× reflects the magnitude of gap moves around announcements relative to normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are typically those with significant revenue sensitivity to quarterly results (e.g., guidance revisions, subscriber/user metrics), binary catalysts beyond just EPS (FDA approvals, contract wins), or concentrated institutional positioning that creates outsized reactions. For premium sellers, high earn effect means both more premium available AND more risk per event.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For CMS Energy, the average crush of 6.6% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.
CMS Energy's next earnings is approximately 40 days away. The optimal entry window for earnings premium strategies is typically 7-14 days before the announcement, when IV begins its pre-earnings ramp but hasn't peaked yet. Entering too early means holding through unnecessary time decay risk; entering too late (1-2 days before) means paying peak IV prices with minimal additional ramp. Monitor CMS Energy's IV Rank and VRP in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the event to time your entry.