›››
Loading...
Loading...
ConocoPhillips — Your statistical edge in selling COP options, quantified
ConocoPhillips (COP) is a Energy stock with actively traded listed options. COP options are mildly overpriced — IV 30d 38.2% vs 37.1% realized vol (+1.1pp). VRP sits at the 43rd percentile, trending higher. VRP of 0.5pp is below the Energy median of +3.4pp. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
With a VRP of just +1.1pp, ConocoPhillips's options are only slightly overpriced relative to realized movement. Implied volatility at 38.2% barely exceeds realized vol of 37.1%, leaving minimal cushion for premium sellers. In thin-VRP environments, transaction costs and slippage can erode much of the theoretical edge. If trading at all, use the smallest position sizes, widest strike distances, and shortest time frames that still collect meaningful premium.
ConocoPhillips's VRP of +1.1pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (38.2% implied) and what is actually occurring (37.1% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
ConocoPhillips's VRP trend over the past 5-10 trading days shows expansion — the gap between implied and realized volatility is widening. This expansion suggests the options market is repricing risk higher while realized movement hasn't yet followed — a window of opportunity for sellers. Rising VRP is the most favorable trend for premium sellers because it means the edge is growing, not shrinking. Historically, VRP expansion periods tend to last 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so timing entries during an uptrend captures some of the best risk-adjusted returns.
ConocoPhillips's VRP is currently +1.1pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (38.2%) and realized volatility (37.1%). This modestly positive VRP indicates a small edge for sellers, though conditions could be stronger.
Marginally — ConocoPhillips's VRP of +1.1pp is slim. The theoretical edge exists but may be eroded by transaction costs. Consider only the highest-probability setups.
ConocoPhillips's VRP has been expanding over recent sessions, meaning the gap between implied and realized volatility is growing. For premium sellers, this is the most favorable trend — the edge is increasing, not depleting. Rising VRP often coincides with the market maintaining elevated IV expectations while the stock settles into calmer actual movement. This window typically lasts 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so the current conditions may have some persistence.
IV Rank tells you if ConocoPhillips's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 36.6%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +1.1pp. Together they provide a complete picture — IV Rank for historical context, VRP for current edge.