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Copart — Your statistical edge in selling CPRT options, quantified
Copart (CPRT) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. CPRT options appear underpriced — realized vol 34.6% exceeds IV 30d 34.5% (-0.1pp). VRP sits at the 33rd percentile, trending higher. VRP of -0.2pp is below the Industrials median of +7.3pp. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Copart's VRP has turned negative at -0.1pp, meaning realized volatility exceeds what the options market is pricing in. The stock is moving 34.6% annualized while options price only 34.5% — the opposite of what premium sellers need. Selling options in this environment means being systematically underpaid for the risk taken. This is the market telling you that actual risk is higher than perceived risk. Consider waiting for VRP to recover above +2pp before initiating new short premium positions, or look at other tickers where conditions are more favorable.
Copart's VRP of -0.1pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (34.5% implied) and what is actually occurring (34.6% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Copart's VRP trend over the past 5-10 trading days shows expansion — the gap between implied and realized volatility is widening. This expansion suggests the options market is repricing risk higher while realized movement hasn't yet followed — a window of opportunity for sellers. Rising VRP is the most favorable trend for premium sellers because it means the edge is growing, not shrinking. Historically, VRP expansion periods tend to last 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so timing entries during an uptrend captures some of the best risk-adjusted returns.
Copart's VRP is currently -0.1pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (34.5%) and realized volatility (34.6%). A negative VRP means the stock is actually moving more than options price in, so selling premium is unfavorable right now.
No — Copart's negative VRP of -0.1pp indicates the stock is moving more than options prices reflect. Selling premium here means being underpaid for the risk. Wait for VRP to recover above +2pp or look at other tickers with stronger conditions.
Copart's VRP has been expanding over recent sessions, meaning the gap between implied and realized volatility is growing. For premium sellers, this is the most favorable trend — the edge is increasing, not depleting. Rising VRP often coincides with the market maintaining elevated IV expectations while the stock settles into calmer actual movement. This window typically lasts 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so the current conditions may have some persistence.
IV Rank tells you if Copart's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 69.2%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently -0.1pp. High IV Rank but negative VRP means premiums look expensive historically, but actual movement justifies those prices.