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DIA earnings move accuracy: implied-vs-actual hit rate across the last 12-24 quarters of past earnings.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg ETF — Implied vs actual close-to-close hit rate across past earnings cycles
Has the market priced DIA's earnings moves correctly? We compare the implied earnings move one trading day before each report against the actual close-to-close move after — Starter unlocks the hit rate, trade readout, and cycle history chart.
DIA is an ETF or fund with no scheduled earnings — there are no event cycles to measure implied-vs-actual move accuracy on.
We compare the front-month implied earnings move (from ORATS, measured 1 trading day before announcement) against the actual close-to-close move from that day to the first trading day after earnings. Hit = actual move stayed at or inside implied. Hit rate = hits / total cycles, computed across the last 12-24 quarters.
A 12-cycle floor (~3 years quarterly) is the minimum for the hit rate to be statistically meaningful. We cap at 24 cycles (~6 years) so the recent earnings regime dominates over very old market conditions.
Hit rate ≥ 70% = options consistently overprice the move (premium sellers favored). 50-69% = fair. < 50% = actual moves frequently exceed implied, meaning premium sellers carry elevated tail risk on this ticker historically.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
No — historical hit rate is a regime indicator, not a forecast. Earnings volatility regimes shift, and a single quarter can deviate from the trend. Use it as one input among many.
Computing the hit rate requires per-cycle ORATS snapshot data going back several years — substantial data ingestion + compute cost. Starter ($15/mo) unlocks this and other S26 Wave 1+ analyses.