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Duke Energy — Your statistical edge in selling DUK options, quantified
Duke Energy (DUK) is a Utilities stock with actively traded listed options. DUK options are mildly overpriced — IV 30d 21.0% vs 16.8% realized vol (+4.2pp). VRP sits at the 85th percentile, trending higher. VRP of +4.2pp is near the Utilities sector median. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Duke Energy's VRP of +4.2pp indicates a useful but not exceptional premium selling edge. The options market is pricing in 21.0% annualized volatility while the stock is actually realizing 16.8%. This moderate gap means premium sellers have a positive expected value, but the edge is thin enough that strategy selection matters — defined-risk approaches like credit spreads and iron condors are more appropriate than aggressive naked selling. Focus on high-probability setups where the moderate VRP is complemented by favorable RV regime and technical structure.
Duke Energy's VRP of +4.2pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (21.0% implied) and what is actually occurring (16.8% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Duke Energy's VRP trend over the past 5-10 trading days shows expansion — the gap between implied and realized volatility is widening. This expansion is driven by calming realized volatility — the stock is moving less while IV hasn't caught up, widening the spread. Rising VRP is the most favorable trend for premium sellers because it means the edge is growing, not shrinking. Historically, VRP expansion periods tend to last 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so timing entries during an uptrend captures some of the best risk-adjusted returns.
Duke Energy's VRP is currently +4.2pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (21.0%) and realized volatility (16.8%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are meaningfully overpriced relative to actual stock movement — this is the core edge that premium sellers harvest.
Moderately — Duke Energy's VRP of +4.2pp provides a workable edge, though not an exceptional one. Defined-risk strategies like credit spreads are most appropriate — the edge exists but isn't large enough to justify aggressive sizing.
Duke Energy's VRP is at the 85th percentile of its 252-day range — this is an unusually strong selling opportunity. VRP at this level occurs roughly 15% of the time, making current conditions notably better than average for premium harvesting.
Duke Energy's VRP has been expanding over recent sessions, meaning the gap between implied and realized volatility is growing. For premium sellers, this is the most favorable trend — the edge is increasing, not depleting. Rising VRP often coincides with the market maintaining elevated IV expectations while the stock settles into calmer actual movement. This window typically lasts 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting, so the current conditions may have some persistence.
IV Rank tells you if Duke Energy's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 25.2%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +4.2pp. Low IV Rank but positive VRP means premiums are cheap by history but still overpriced vs realized movement.
With earnings in approximately 8 days, Duke Energy's VRP should be interpreted carefully. Pre-earnings VRP often appears inflated because implied volatility spikes in anticipation of the binary event while realized vol may still be subdued. This isn't the same structural overpricing that premium sellers can reliably capture — it's event premium that will resolve in one direction after the announcement. If selling premium through earnings, use defined-risk strategies and accept that the VRP "edge" includes genuine gap risk.
Duke Energy's RV Ratio of 0.80 shows calming volatility — the stock is moving less than its recent baseline. Combined with a VRP of +4.2pp, this is an ideal setup: realized risk is declining while implied volatility (and therefore premiums) haven't fully adjusted down. Premium sellers collect premiums based on the market's fear level while the stock's actual behavior is becoming more subdued. This is the classic "sell expensive insurance during calm weather" setup.