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Expand Energy — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Expand Energy (EXE) is a Energy stock with actively traded listed options. Across 6 earnings events, sellers won 83% of the time. The market priced in 1.89x the actual move on average — a persistent overpricing edge for premium sellers. This is a strong event-driven setup for short-volatility positioning around earnings. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Favorable conditions for premium selling.
IV overpricing pattern exists but limited sample (n=6). Use reduced position sizing.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
EXE may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →EXE earnings moves have been roughly in line with implied — exercise caution and use defined-risk structures.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±2.0% | -1.2% | -0% | WIN |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.9% | -2.5% | --4% | LOSS |
| Q3 2025 | ±1.7% | +1.2% | --7% | WIN |
| Q2 2025 | ±1.5% | +0.4% | --2% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 6 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close · limited sample
Unlock all 6 quarters →Based on 6 quarters of EXE earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 83% of the time — edge favors premium sellers.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 83% of the time — long premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Avg Implied
±1.7%
Avg Actual
±0.9%
Quarters
6
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Expand Energy has delivered an IV crush in 83% of its last 6 earnings cycles — one of the most reliable crush patterns in the options market. When a stock consistently crushes IV after earnings, it means the options market systematically overprices the expected move, giving premium sellers a repeatable edge. Expand Energy's average crush magnitude of -1.8% means that roughly one-quarter to one-third of pre-earnings IV evaporates overnight. For earnings premium sellers, this track record is the most important factor in deciding whether to trade through the announcement.
Expand Energy's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 83.3% and average crush of -1.8%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Expand Energy's implied earnings moves have historically exceeded actual moves by a significant margin, with an implied/actual ratio of 1.9x. This means if options price in a ±5% move, the stock typically only moves ±2.6%. This systematic overpricing is the earnings premium seller's core edge — the market's fear of the unknown consistently exceeds what materializes. Strategies that profit from this overpricing include pre-earnings iron condors, short straddles, and short strangles positioned around the expected move.
Expand Energy has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 83.3% of its last 6 earnings cycles. This is one of the more reliable crush patterns, making Expand Energy a strong candidate for earnings premium selling strategies.
Expand Energy's average post-earnings IV crush is -1.8%. This relatively small crush means limited premium available to capture — transaction costs and slippage can eat into thin margins.
Historically yes — Expand Energy's options market prices in moves that are 1.89x larger than what materializes. This systematic overpricing is what makes Expand Energy attractive for earnings premium selling. When you sell a straddle or strangle before earnings, you're betting that the actual move will be smaller than the implied — and for Expand Energy, that has been the case more often than not.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Expand Energy, the average crush of -1.8% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.
Expand Energy's next earnings is approximately 50 days away. The optimal entry window for earnings premium strategies is typically 7-14 days before the announcement, when IV begins its pre-earnings ramp but hasn't peaked yet. Entering too early means holding through unnecessary time decay risk; entering too late (1-2 days before) means paying peak IV prices with minimal additional ramp. Monitor Expand Energy's IV Rank and VRP in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the event to time your entry.