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HCA Healthcare Inc. — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Avoid short premium into earnings.
Actual moves consistently exceed implied — consider long vol (straddle/strangle buyers) or stay out entirely.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
HCA may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →HCA actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied — selling premium through the event carries elevated risk.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±1.9% | +6.4% | -32% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.6% | +0.5% | -22% | WIN |
| Q3 2025 | ±2.1% | -2.1% | -39% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±2.1% | -4.4% | -27% | LOSS |
Showing 4 of 4 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close · limited sample
Unlock all 4 quarters →Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s earnings history shows the stock has exceeded its options-implied move in 75% of recent announcements — the opposite of what premium sellers want. When a stock regularly moves more than the market's implied range, selling straddles or strangles through earnings becomes a losing proposition over time. HCA Healthcare Inc.'s average IV crush of only 30.0% is insufficient to offset the instances where actual gap moves exceeded the straddle breakeven. Unless the current setup offers an unusually wide implied move premium relative to historical actual moves, earnings premium selling on HCA Healthcare Inc. is better avoided.
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 25.0% and average crush of 30.0%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s implied earnings moves have historically fallen short of what actually happened, with an implied/actual ratio of only 0.57x — the options market priced in just 57% of the real move. When this ratio is below 1.0, the stock regularly surprises in magnitude — the market underestimates the gap risk. This is dangerous territory for premium sellers: even if you sell at seemingly wide strikes, the stock may blow through them. HCA Healthcare Inc.'s earnings events are better suited for buying strategies (straddles or strangles) or avoiding entirely.
Not reliably — HCA Healthcare Inc. only crushed IV in 25% of recent earnings. The stock has frequently moved beyond what options priced in.
HCA Healthcare Inc. has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 25.0% of its last 4 earnings cycles. This below-average win rate suggests caution — HCA Healthcare Inc. frequently moves more than the market expects.
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s average post-earnings IV crush is 30.0%. This strong crush provides meaningful premium decay for sellers, particularly for strategies centered around ATM strikes.
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s earn effect of 4.00× reflects the magnitude of gap moves around announcements relative to normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are typically those with significant revenue sensitivity to quarterly results (e.g., guidance revisions, subscriber/user metrics), binary catalysts beyond just EPS (FDA approvals, contract wins), or concentrated institutional positioning that creates outsized reactions. For premium sellers, high earn effect means both more premium available AND more risk per event.
HCA Healthcare Inc.'s implied earnings moves have averaged 0.57x the actual move — meaning the options market priced in only 57% of what actually happened. This can result from unpredictable guidance revisions, high sensitivity to sector-specific metrics, or institutional positioning that amplifies post-earnings momentum. For premium sellers, this is a warning: traditional earnings crush strategies have negative expected value on HCA Healthcare Inc..
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For HCA Healthcare Inc., the average crush of 30.0% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.