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Hologic — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Hologic (HOLX) operates in the Health Care sector and has actively traded listed options. Across 12 earnings events, sellers won 67% of the time. The market priced in 1.18x the actual move on average — a persistent overpricing edge for premium sellers. A mixed pattern — event-driven setups here need tighter risk controls. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Favorable conditions for premium selling.
Consistent IV overpricing creates edge for short straddle/strangle sellers. Use standard position sizing.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
HOLX may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →HOLX earnings moves have been roughly in line with implied — exercise caution and use defined-risk structures.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | -20% | WIN |
| Q4 2025 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | -18% | WIN |
| Q3 2025 | ±1.3% | -1.4% | --16% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±2.0% | -0.8% | --1% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 12 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 12 quarters →Based on 12 quarters of HOLX earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 67% of the time — edge favors premium sellers.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 67% of the time — long premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Avg Implied
±1.3%
Avg Actual
±1.1%
Quarters
12
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Hologic's earnings crush track record is mixed, with IV compression occurring in about 67% of recent cycles. A win rate near 50% means the options market is approximately correctly pricing the expected move — sometimes the stock moves less (crush), sometimes more (expansion). For premium sellers, this requires a more selective approach: trade the earnings event when other conditions are favorable (high IV Rank, positive VRP, manageable implied move) and sit out when the setup isn't clean. An average crush of -0.3% per event provides reasonable premium decay when it does work.
Hologic's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 66.7% and average crush of -0.3%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Hologic has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 66.7% of its last 12 earnings cycles. This mixed record suggests selective trading — wait for additional confirming signals before selling premium through earnings.
Hologic's average post-earnings IV crush is -0.3%. This relatively small crush means limited premium available to capture — transaction costs and slippage can eat into thin margins.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Hologic, the average crush of -0.3% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.
Hologic's next earnings is approximately 24 days away. The optimal entry window for earnings premium strategies is typically 7-14 days before the announcement, when IV begins its pre-earnings ramp but hasn't peaked yet. Entering too early means holding through unnecessary time decay risk; entering too late (1-2 days before) means paying peak IV prices with minimal additional ramp. Monitor Hologic's IV Rank and VRP in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the event to time your entry.