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Lumentum — Your statistical edge in selling LITE options, quantified
Lumentum (LITE) operates in the Information Technology sector and has actively traded listed options. LITE options are overpriced — IV 30d at 105.4% vs 98.8% realized vol (+6.7pp spread). VRP sits at the 50th percentile. A wide premium gap like this favors short-volatility positioning. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Lumentum's Volatility Risk Premium stands at +6.7pp, placing it among the strongest selling opportunities in the current market. Implied volatility of 105.4% is significantly overpricing Lumentum's actual realized movement of 98.8%. This gap — the VRP — represents the statistical edge that disciplined premium sellers capture over time. The wider this gap, the more the options market is overpaying for protection, and the larger the expected return for those willing to be the insurance provider.
Lumentum's VRP of +6.7pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (105.4% implied) and what is actually occurring (98.8% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Lumentum's VRP has been relatively stable over recent trading days, fluctuating around +6.7pp without a clear directional trend. Stable VRP environments are workable for premium sellers — the edge is predictable and strategies can be sized consistently. The key risk in stable VRP periods is complacency: a sudden catalyst (earnings, macro event, sector rotation) can compress or expand VRP rapidly, so maintaining defined-risk structures and stop-loss discipline remains important even when conditions appear steady.
Yes — significantly overpriced. Lumentum's VRP of +6.7pp means implied volatility (105.4%) exceeds realized volatility (98.8%). Premium sellers profit when this spread is positive.
Lumentum's VRP is currently +6.7pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (105.4%) and realized volatility (98.8%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are meaningfully overpriced relative to actual stock movement — this is the core edge that premium sellers harvest.
Yes — Lumentum's VRP of +6.7pp is in the favorable zone. The options market is significantly overestimating future volatility, creating a statistical edge for sellers. Stable trend suggests consistent conditions for selling.
IV Rank tells you if Lumentum's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 79.5%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +6.7pp. Both are favorable for Lumentum right now, which is the strongest combination.