›››
Loading...
Loading...
Lilly (Eli) — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Lilly (Eli) (LLY) operates in the Health Care sector and has actively traded listed options. IV dropped an average of -21% after earnings across 12 events (8% seller win rate). The market only priced in 0.26x the actual move — earnings tend to surprise beyond expectations. Weak crush history makes earnings a challenging event for premium sellers. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Avoid short premium into earnings.
Actual moves consistently exceed implied — consider long vol (straddle/strangle buyers) or stay out entirely.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
LLY may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →LLY actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied — selling premium through the event carries elevated risk.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓Bottom line: Despite consistent IV crush, LLY's actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied. Premium selling through earnings has been a losing strategy — consider long-vol structures or staying out of the event entirely.
| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±2.3% | +10.9% | -24% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.9% | +3.9% | -14% | LOSS |
| Q3 2025 | ±2.2% | -13.5% | -19% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±1.8% | -10.2% | -3% | LOSS |
Showing 4 of 12 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 12 quarters →Based on 12 quarters of LLY earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock exceeded expected move 92% of the time — selling premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock moved beyond expected 92% of the time — realized moves large enough to profit from long premium.
Avg Implied
±1.9%
Avg Actual
±7.4%
Quarters
12
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Lilly (Eli)'s earnings history shows the stock has exceeded its options-implied move in 92% of recent announcements — the opposite of what premium sellers want. When a stock regularly moves more than the market's implied range, selling straddles or strangles through earnings becomes a losing proposition over time. Lilly (Eli)'s average IV crush of only 20.8% is insufficient to offset the instances where actual gap moves exceeded the straddle breakeven. Unless the current setup offers an unusually wide implied move premium relative to historical actual moves, earnings premium selling on Lilly (Eli) is better avoided.
Lilly (Eli)'s earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 8.3% and average crush of 20.8%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Lilly (Eli)'s implied earnings moves have historically fallen short of what actually happened, with an implied/actual ratio of only 0.26x — the options market priced in just 26% of the real move. When this ratio is below 1.0, the stock regularly surprises in magnitude — the market underestimates the gap risk. This is dangerous territory for premium sellers: even if you sell at seemingly wide strikes, the stock may blow through them. Lilly (Eli)'s earnings events are better suited for buying strategies (straddles or strangles) or avoiding entirely.
Lilly (Eli) has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 8.3% of its last 12 earnings cycles. This below-average win rate suggests caution — Lilly (Eli) frequently moves more than the market expects.
Lilly (Eli)'s average post-earnings IV crush is 20.8%. This moderate crush provides decent premium decay, though sellers should ensure their strikes capture enough of this decay to justify the binary risk.
Lilly (Eli)'s implied earnings moves have averaged 0.26x the actual move — meaning the options market priced in only 26% of what actually happened. This can result from unpredictable guidance revisions, high sensitivity to sector-specific metrics, or institutional positioning that amplifies post-earnings momentum. For premium sellers, this is a warning: traditional earnings crush strategies have negative expected value on Lilly (Eli).
With earnings in 1 days, Lilly (Eli)'s 8.3% win rate and implied/actual ratio of 0.26x suggest caution. The historical pattern doesn't strongly favor premium selling for this specific stock's earnings. If you trade, use minimal size and defined-risk structures. Consider alternative tickers with stronger earnings crush profiles.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Lilly (Eli), the average crush of 20.8% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.