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Mid-America Apartment Communities — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) operates in the Real Estate sector and has actively traded listed options. Across 12 earnings events, sellers won 58% of the time. The implied-to-actual ratio sits at 1.00x — the market prices MAA earnings moves fairly. A mixed pattern — event-driven setups here need tighter risk controls. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Neutral conditions — be selective.
Implied and actual moves are roughly aligned. Edge is marginal — prefer defined-risk or smaller size.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
MAA may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →MAA earnings moves have been roughly in line with implied — exercise caution and use defined-risk structures.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±1.1% | +2.4% | --8% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.1% | -2.9% | -4% | LOSS |
| Q3 2025 | ±1.1% | -2.7% | -6% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±1.2% | -0.1% | --4% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 12 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 12 quarters →Based on 12 quarters of MAA earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 58% of the time — edge favors premium sellers.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 58% of the time — long premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Avg Implied
±1.2%
Avg Actual
±1.2%
Quarters
12
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Mid-America Apartment Communities's earnings crush track record is mixed, with IV compression occurring in about 58% of recent cycles. A win rate near 50% means the options market is approximately correctly pricing the expected move — sometimes the stock moves less (crush), sometimes more (expansion). For premium sellers, this requires a more selective approach: trade the earnings event when other conditions are favorable (high IV Rank, positive VRP, manageable implied move) and sit out when the setup isn't clean. An average crush of -2.4% per event provides reasonable premium decay when it does work.
Mid-America Apartment Communities's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 58.3% and average crush of -2.4%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Mid-America Apartment Communities's earn effect of 4.00× ranks among the highest in its sector, meaning the stock's post-earnings gap significantly exceeds normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are the most impactful events on the options calendar — IV ramps sharply in the 1-2 weeks before, and the crush (or expansion) after is dramatic. For premium sellers targeting Mid-America Apartment Communities's earnings, the large earn effect means more premium is available to collect, but the risk of a move exceeding the expected range is correspondingly higher. Defined-risk structures are essential.
Mid-America Apartment Communities has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 58.3% of its last 12 earnings cycles. This mixed record suggests selective trading — wait for additional confirming signals before selling premium through earnings.
Mid-America Apartment Communities's average post-earnings IV crush is -2.4%. This relatively small crush means limited premium available to capture — transaction costs and slippage can eat into thin margins.
Mid-America Apartment Communities's earn effect of 4.00× reflects the magnitude of gap moves around announcements relative to normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are typically those with significant revenue sensitivity to quarterly results (e.g., guidance revisions, subscriber/user metrics), binary catalysts beyond just EPS (FDA approvals, contract wins), or concentrated institutional positioning that creates outsized reactions. For premium sellers, high earn effect means both more premium available AND more risk per event.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Mid-America Apartment Communities, the average crush of -2.4% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.
Mid-America Apartment Communities's next earnings is approximately 32 days away. The optimal entry window for earnings premium strategies is typically 7-14 days before the announcement, when IV begins its pre-earnings ramp but hasn't peaked yet. Entering too early means holding through unnecessary time decay risk; entering too late (1-2 days before) means paying peak IV prices with minimal additional ramp. Monitor Mid-America Apartment Communities's IV Rank and VRP in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the event to time your entry.