›››
Orderly
Front month not unusually inflated
- Signal
- 30d IV < 90d IV
- Meaning
- Front month is not unusually inflated relative to longer-dated tenors.
- Pricing
- Front-month IV inputs are close to baseline relative to back-month tenors.
Loading...
Loading...
MSFT 30d IV is 27.9% vs 90d IV 29.9% — front-vs-back-month curve shape.
Microsoft Corp. — 30d vs 90d slope, IV curve, and earnings-driven backwardation
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) operates in the Information Technology sector and has actively traded listed options. The 30-day IV reads 27.9% versus 90-day IV at 29.9%, a 30D-vs-90D slope of -2.0pp. The curve is currently in contango (back-month IV above front-month IV), which describes how implied volatility distributes across expirations rather than the absolute level on any single tenor. MSFT expected move.
MSFT term structure is in contango — 30d IV (27.9%) sits below 90d IV (29.9%); the model reads the curve as orderly with no front-month event premium.
The IV term structure shows how option pricing varies across maturities. When the front month is priced richer than 90D IV (backwardation), short-dated options carry richer IV inputs than longer-dated options — useful for comparing expiration pricing, provided the inflation isn't tied to a known catalyst that compresses sharply.
The curve is not a direction predictor. It tells you whether the front month is rich, calm, or flat — interpreting that reading still requires VRP, IV Rank, and the event calendar.
See MSFT's IV curve across 7 tenors, 30d vs 90d slope, and earnings-driven backwardation flag.
Term structure shows whether short-dated IV is inflated — or if the curve is calm enough for cleaner premium sales. MSFT's 30d/90d slope updates daily.
$19/mo · vs $49–$99 for pro tools
7-day free trial · No card to start · Cancel anytime
One question the curve answers: is the front month richer than the back, or is it pricing a known event? The curve shape changes how IV is distributed across expirations.
Term structure shows whether short-dated IV is elevated relative to longer-dated. Backwardation (front higher than back) often signals event/earnings risk. Contango (front lower than back) signals normal calm markets.
Backwardation marks the front-month as event-sensitive in the model; contango is a stable-regime context. Earnings proximity is a separate input.
spread % = (iv30d − iv90d) / iv90d × 100. Buckets (ratio iv30d/iv90d): Steep Contango (<0.90), Contango (0.90–0.98), Flat (0.98–1.02), Backwardation (1.02–1.10), Steep Backwardation (>1.10).ORATS smoothed-model IV at 7 tenors (10d, 20d, 30d, 60d, 90d, 6m, 1y) plus term_structure_slope, contango/backwardation_alert flags, and backwardation_is_earnings detection
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). Forward vol 30→60d computed from σ_fwd = √((T₂σ₂² − T₁σ₁²)/(T₂−T₁)).
Term structure measures the SHAPE of the IV curve, not direction. Earnings within 14 days inflate front-month IV without changing the underlying volatility regime — VolRadar surfaces an earnings-driven warning to prevent treating that elevated short-dated premium as stable seller edge. Wave 1 uses static thresholds; Wave 2 will calibrate per-ticker.
Microsoft Corp.'s 30-day IV is 27.9% versus 90-day IV at 29.9%, a 30D-vs-90D slope of -2.0pp. The curve is currently pricing back-month IV above front-month IV, which describes how implied volatility distributes across expirations rather than the absolute level on any single tenor.
Microsoft Corp.'s 90-day IV at 29.9% sits above the 30-day IV at 27.9%. Back-month options carry higher implied volatility than front-month options — the more typical curve shape for equity options outside of acute event windows. Longer-dated tenors price more uncertainty than the front month.
Calendar and diagonal structures derive their pricing from the IV difference between two expirations. With Microsoft Corp.'s current curve, the back month is richer than the front, which is the IV setup long-calendar and long-diagonal structures typically prefer. See the strategy comparison view for how calendars and diagonals are priced under this curve.
Microsoft Corp.'s curve is currently a contango curve — back-month IV above front-month IV. The 30-day IV is 27.9% versus the 90-day IV at 29.9%, a 30D-vs-90D slope of -2.0pp.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Term structure is one input, not a complete signal. Interpret it alongside other volatility, liquidity, and event-risk data. Not investment advice.
Contango — Microsoft Corp.'s 90-day IV at 29.9% sits above the 30-day IV at 27.9%. This is the more typical curve shape for equity options outside concentrated event windows.
No — Microsoft Corp.'s 30-day IV at 27.9% sits below the 90-day IV at 29.9%. Longer-dated options carry the higher IV, which is the more typical equity-options curve shape.
Calendar and diagonal pricing comes from the IV difference between two expirations. Microsoft Corp.'s current curve supports the long-calendar setup, since the back month carries the higher IV that the long leg needs. The per-tenor IV table on this page shows the full distribution that drives this comparison.
Equity options usually carry mild contango — back-month IV slightly above front-month IV — outside of concentrated event windows. There is no single "correct" slope for Microsoft Corp.: a normal range is more reliably read from the per-tenor table on this page than from a fixed threshold. The curve view shows the recent envelope around which the current reading sits.