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Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) (QQQ) operates in the ETF - Index sector and has actively traded listed options. IV dropped an average of -41% after earnings across 8 events (25% seller win rate). The market priced in 3.32x the actual move on average — a persistent overpricing edge for premium sellers. Weak crush history makes earnings a challenging event for premium sellers. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Favorable conditions for premium selling.
IV tends to overprice moves, but win rate is moderate — use defined-risk structures for safety.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
QQQ may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →QQQ earnings moves have been roughly in line with implied — exercise caution and use defined-risk structures.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±1.3% | +2.3% | -19% | LOSS |
| Q2 2025 | ±2.4% | +12.5% | -40% | LOSS |
| Q4 2024 | ±1.1% | +2.9% | -20% | LOSS |
| Q3 2024 | ±1.8% | +2.2% | -24% | LOSS |
Showing 4 of 8 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 8 quarters →Based on 8 quarters of QQQ earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock exceeded expected move 75% of the time — selling premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock moved beyond expected 75% of the time — realized moves large enough to profit from long premium.
Avg Implied
±10.3%
Avg Actual
±3.1%
Quarters
8
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)'s earnings history shows the stock has exceeded its options-implied move in 75% of recent announcements — the opposite of what premium sellers want. When a stock regularly moves more than the market's implied range, selling straddles or strangles through earnings becomes a losing proposition over time. Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)'s average IV crush of only 40.5% is insufficient to offset the instances where actual gap moves exceeded the straddle breakeven. Unless the current setup offers an unusually wide implied move premium relative to historical actual moves, earnings premium selling on Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) is better avoided.
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)'s earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 25.0% and average crush of 40.5%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 25.0% of its last 8 earnings cycles. This below-average win rate suggests caution — Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) frequently moves more than the market expects.
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)'s average post-earnings IV crush is 40.5%. This massive crush means premium sellers capture significant value when the trade works — straddles and strangles lose roughly one-third or more of their pre-earnings value overnight.
Historically yes — Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)'s options market prices in moves that are 3.32x larger than what materializes. This systematic overpricing is what makes Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100) attractive for earnings premium selling. When you sell a straddle or strangle before earnings, you're betting that the actual move will be smaller than the implied — and for Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100), that has been the case more often than not.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100), the average crush of 40.5% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.