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Supermicro — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
Free view uses the latest 4 quarters. Ranked screener positions use the full 12-quarter history.
IV crush is the sharp drop in implied volatility that typically lands the morning after an earnings release. Options pricing builds an event-risk premium ahead of the report, which evaporates once the unknown becomes known — even if the actual price move is large. For premium sellers, the relevant question is whether the pre-earnings premium tends to overprice the actual move on this specific ticker. Across the 4-event preview shown for SMCI (out of 12 on file), average IV crush was 32% and seller win rate was 25%. Starter unlocks the full 12-event history.
Premium sellers running earnings strategies (short strangles, iron condors, calendar spreads) rely on this overpricing pattern. A high win rate (>70%) over a meaningful sample suggests the market structurally overprices SMCI earnings risk — short-vol structures carry an edge. A low win rate (<40%) means the opposite: actual moves typically overshoot implied, and short-premium structures lose more than they win. The implied-to-actual ratio for SMCI sits at 0.43x, meaning earnings tend to surprise beyond expectations.
Earnings setups demand more risk control than non-event premium selling — defined-risk structures (spreads, iron condors) cap downside if a quarter delivers a tail move outside historical patterns. For broader volatility context on SMCI, see the SMCI IV analysis and SMCI expected move. To compare SMCI against the full universe of earnings premium-selling candidates, see the Best Earnings Premium Selling Stocks screener — same T-1 → T+1 crush methodology, ranked across 530+ tickers.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Avoid short premium into earnings.
Actual moves consistently exceed implied — consider long vol (straddle/strangle buyers) or stay out entirely.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
SMCI may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →SMCI actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied — selling premium through the event carries elevated risk.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±5.7% | +13.9% | -31% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±5.7% | -16.6% | -36% | LOSS |
| Q3 2025 | ±5.7% | -19.7% | -38% | LOSS |
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Supermicro's earnings history shows the stock has exceeded its options-implied move in 75% of recent announcements — the opposite of what premium sellers want. When a stock regularly moves more than the market's implied range, selling straddles or strangles through earnings becomes a losing proposition over time. Supermicro's average IV crush of only 32.4% is insufficient to offset the instances where actual gap moves exceeded the straddle breakeven. Unless the current setup offers an unusually wide implied move premium relative to historical actual moves, earnings premium selling on Supermicro is better avoided.
Supermicro's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 25.0% and average crush of 32.4%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
Supermicro's implied earnings moves have historically fallen short of what actually happened, with an implied/actual ratio of only 0.43x — the options market priced in just 43% of the real move. When this ratio is below 1.0, the stock regularly surprises in magnitude — the market underestimates the gap risk. This is dangerous territory for premium sellers: even if you sell at seemingly wide strikes, the stock may blow through them. Supermicro's earnings events are better suited for buying strategies (straddles or strangles) or avoiding entirely.
Not reliably — Supermicro only crushed IV in 25% of recent earnings. The stock has frequently moved beyond what options priced in.
| Q2 2025 | ±5.5% | +2.0% | -25% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 4 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close · limited sample
Unlock all 4 quarters →Supermicro has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 25.0% of its last 4 earnings cycles. This below-average win rate suggests caution — Supermicro frequently moves more than the market expects.
Supermicro's average post-earnings IV crush is 32.4%. This strong crush provides meaningful premium decay for sellers, particularly for strategies centered around ATM strikes.
Supermicro's implied earnings moves have averaged 0.43x the actual move — meaning the options market priced in only 43% of what actually happened. This can result from unpredictable guidance revisions, high sensitivity to sector-specific metrics, or institutional positioning that amplifies post-earnings momentum. For premium sellers, this is a warning: traditional earnings crush strategies have negative expected value on Supermicro.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For Supermicro, the average crush of 32.4% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.