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Constellation Brands — Your statistical edge in selling STZ options, quantified
Constellation Brands (STZ) operates in the Consumer Staples sector and has actively traded listed options. STZ options are overpriced — IV 30d at 38.1% vs 31.1% realized vol (+7.0pp spread). VRP sits at the 98th percentile. VRP of +7.0pp is above the Consumer Staples median of +6.2pp — relatively stronger edge. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Constellation Brands's Volatility Risk Premium stands at +7.0pp, placing it among the strongest selling opportunities in the current market. Implied volatility of 38.1% is significantly overpricing Constellation Brands's actual realized movement of 31.1%. This gap — the VRP — represents the statistical edge that disciplined premium sellers capture over time. The wider this gap, the more the options market is overpaying for protection, and the larger the expected return for those willing to be the insurance provider.
Constellation Brands's VRP of +7.0pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (38.1% implied) and what is actually occurring (31.1% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Constellation Brands's VRP has been relatively stable over recent trading days, fluctuating around +7.0pp without a clear directional trend. Stable VRP environments are workable for premium sellers — the edge is predictable and strategies can be sized consistently. The key risk in stable VRP periods is complacency: a sudden catalyst (earnings, macro event, sector rotation) can compress or expand VRP rapidly, so maintaining defined-risk structures and stop-loss discipline remains important even when conditions appear steady.
Constellation Brands's VRP is currently +7.0pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (38.1%) and realized volatility (31.1%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are meaningfully overpriced relative to actual stock movement — this is the core edge that premium sellers harvest.
Yes — Constellation Brands's VRP of +7.0pp is in the favorable zone. The options market is significantly overestimating future volatility, creating a statistical edge for sellers. Stable trend suggests consistent conditions for selling. Caveat: with earnings approaching in 6 days, use defined-risk strategies.
Constellation Brands's VRP is at the 98th percentile of its 252-day range — this is an unusually strong selling opportunity. VRP at this level occurs roughly 2% of the time, making current conditions notably better than average for premium harvesting.
IV Rank tells you if Constellation Brands's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 47%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +7.0pp. Together they provide a complete picture — IV Rank for historical context, VRP for current edge.
With earnings in approximately 6 days, Constellation Brands's VRP should be interpreted carefully. Pre-earnings VRP often appears inflated because implied volatility spikes in anticipation of the binary event while realized vol may still be subdued. This isn't the same structural overpricing that premium sellers can reliably capture — it's event premium that will resolve in one direction after the announcement. If selling premium through earnings, use defined-risk strategies and accept that the VRP "edge" includes genuine gap risk.
Constellation Brands's RV Ratio of 0.82 shows calming volatility — the stock is moving less than its recent baseline. Combined with a VRP of +7.0pp, this is an ideal setup: realized risk is declining while implied volatility (and therefore premiums) haven't fully adjusted down. Premium sellers collect premiums based on the market's fear level while the stock's actual behavior is becoming more subdued. This is the classic "sell expensive insurance during calm weather" setup.