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T-Mobile US — Historical IV crush pattern, win rate, and edge score
T-Mobile US (TMUS) operates in the Communication Services sector and has actively traded listed options. IV dropped an average of -7% after earnings across 12 events (67% seller win rate). The market only priced in 0.74x the actual move — earnings tend to surprise beyond expectations. A mixed pattern — event-driven setups here need tighter risk controls. See Premium Selling for the full trade verdict.
Implied vs Actual Earnings Moves
Avoid short premium into earnings.
Actual moves tend to exceed implied — prefer defined-risk strategies (iron condors with wide wings) or reduced position size.
How to read this page
Crush % = (Pre-earnings IV − Post-earnings IV) / Pre-earnings IV × 100Historical IV levels before and after each earnings announcement
ORATS historical earnings data, minimum 5 quarters required
Past crush patterns do not predict future results. Sample sizes under 8 quarters have lower statistical reliability. Company fundamentals, guidance, and macro context change between earnings.
TMUS may be attractive for premium selling between earnings cycles — standard VRP and IV Rank signals apply.
See current premium signal →TMUS actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied — selling premium through the event carries elevated risk.
This page — historical earnings analysis ↓Bottom line: Despite consistent IV crush, TMUS's actual earnings moves have historically exceeded implied. Premium selling through earnings has been a losing strategy — consider long-vol structures or staying out of the event entirely.
| Quarter | Implied | Actual | Crush | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ±2.0% | +4.8% | -20% | LOSS |
| Q4 2025 | ±1.6% | -3.0% | -18% | LOSS |
| Q3 2025 | ±1.4% | -0.1% | --10% | WIN |
| Q2 2025 | ±1.7% | +1.4% | -0% | WIN |
Showing 4 of 12 · Short ATM straddle, close-to-close
Unlock all 12 quarters →Based on 12 quarters of TMUS earnings data
Short ATM Straddle
Sell both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 67% of the time — edge favors premium sellers.
Long ATM Straddle
Buy both call + put at-the-money
Stock stayed within expected move 67% of the time — long premium has been unprofitable more often than not.
Avg Implied
±1.4%
Avg Actual
±1.9%
Quarters
12
Proxy only: Based on actual stock move vs ATM implied move around earnings. Not actual options P&L — excludes premiums, fees, execution, and strike-specific pricing.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
T-Mobile US's earnings crush track record is mixed, with IV compression occurring in about 67% of recent cycles. A win rate near 50% means the options market is approximately correctly pricing the expected move — sometimes the stock moves less (crush), sometimes more (expansion). For premium sellers, this requires a more selective approach: trade the earnings event when other conditions are favorable (high IV Rank, positive VRP, manageable implied move) and sit out when the setup isn't clean. An average crush of 7.1% per event provides reasonable premium decay when it does work.
T-Mobile US's earnings crush analysis examines how the stock's actual post-earnings move compares to what options implied. With a win rate of 66.7% and average crush of 7.1%, premium sellers can assess whether the earnings event historically overprices or underprices the gap move. This historical pattern is one of the strongest predictors of future earnings options behavior.
T-Mobile US's implied earnings moves have historically fallen short of what actually happened, with an implied/actual ratio of only 0.74x — the options market priced in just 74% of the real move. When this ratio is below 1.0, the stock regularly surprises in magnitude — the market underestimates the gap risk. This is dangerous territory for premium sellers: even if you sell at seemingly wide strikes, the stock may blow through them. T-Mobile US's earnings events are better suited for buying strategies (straddles or strangles) or avoiding entirely.
T-Mobile US has delivered an IV crush (actual move smaller than implied move) in 66.7% of its last 12 earnings cycles. This mixed record suggests selective trading — wait for additional confirming signals before selling premium through earnings.
T-Mobile US's average post-earnings IV crush is 7.1%. This relatively small crush means limited premium available to capture — transaction costs and slippage can eat into thin margins.
T-Mobile US's earn effect of 3.18× reflects the magnitude of gap moves around announcements relative to normal daily moves. High earn effect stocks are typically those with significant revenue sensitivity to quarterly results (e.g., guidance revisions, subscriber/user metrics), binary catalysts beyond just EPS (FDA approvals, contract wins), or concentrated institutional positioning that creates outsized reactions. For premium sellers, high earn effect means both more premium available AND more risk per event.
T-Mobile US's implied earnings moves have averaged 0.74x the actual move — meaning the options market priced in only 74% of what actually happened. This can result from unpredictable guidance revisions, high sensitivity to sector-specific metrics, or institutional positioning that amplifies post-earnings momentum. For premium sellers, this is a warning: traditional earnings crush strategies have negative expected value on T-Mobile US.
IV crush is the rapid decline in implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, uncertainty drives IV higher because the market prices in potential for a large move. After the news drops, uncertainty resolves and IV collapses — typically within hours. For T-Mobile US, the average crush of 7.1% means options lose roughly that percentage of their time value post-announcement. Premium sellers profit from this by selling options at inflated pre-earnings prices and buying them back (or letting them expire) after the crush deflates their value.
T-Mobile US's next earnings is approximately 48 days away. The optimal entry window for earnings premium strategies is typically 7-14 days before the announcement, when IV begins its pre-earnings ramp but hasn't peaked yet. Entering too early means holding through unnecessary time decay risk; entering too late (1-2 days before) means paying peak IV prices with minimal additional ramp. Monitor T-Mobile US's IV Rank and VRP in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the event to time your entry.