›››
Loading...
Loading...
United States Oil Fund — Your statistical edge in selling USO options, quantified
United States Oil Fund (USO) operates in the ETF - Commodity sector and has actively traded listed options. USO options are mildly overpriced — IV 30d 94.5% vs 90.8% realized vol (+3.7pp). VRP sits at the 65th percentile, trending lower. The spread is positive but narrow, making high-conviction premium selling harder to justify. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
United States Oil Fund's VRP of +3.7pp indicates a useful but not exceptional premium selling edge. The options market is pricing in 94.5% annualized volatility while the stock is actually realizing 90.8%. This moderate gap means premium sellers have a positive expected value, but the edge is thin enough that strategy selection matters — defined-risk approaches like credit spreads and iron condors are more appropriate than aggressive naked selling. Focus on high-probability setups where the moderate VRP is complemented by favorable RV regime and technical structure.
United States Oil Fund's VRP of +3.7pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (94.5% implied) and what is actually occurring (90.8% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
United States Oil Fund's VRP trend shows compression — the edge for premium sellers is shrinking. Implied volatility is declining faster than realized vol, squeezing the premium available to sellers. Falling VRP doesn't necessarily mean the edge is gone, but it does signal deteriorating conditions. Tighten position sizes, favor shorter expirations that limit exposure to further compression, and be prepared to pause if VRP approaches zero.
United States Oil Fund's VRP is currently +3.7pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (94.5%) and realized volatility (90.8%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are meaningfully overpriced relative to actual stock movement — this is the core edge that premium sellers harvest.
Moderately — United States Oil Fund's VRP of +3.7pp provides a workable edge, though not an exceptional one. Defined-risk strategies like credit spreads are most appropriate — the edge exists but isn't large enough to justify aggressive sizing.
A declining VRP trend on United States Oil Fund means the edge for premium sellers is compressing. This can happen either because IV is dropping (less premium to collect) or because realized vol is rising (more risk per dollar of premium). While VRP is still positive, the direction matters — falling VRP may continue to compress. Tighten position sizes and consider shorter expirations to reduce exposure to further deterioration.
IV Rank tells you if United States Oil Fund's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 68.1%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +3.7pp. Both are favorable for United States Oil Fund right now, which is the strongest combination.