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VTRS expected move — daily and weekly price ranges for strike selection.
Viatris — How far can VTRS move? Set strikes outside the expected range.
The expected move shows the range the market is pricing in for a given timeframe. Selling options outside this range gives you a statistical probability advantage.
Compare expected move to your strike selection — selling beyond 1σ means the market expects your trade to win.
EM = Price × RV 20d × √(DTE / 252)Current price, Yang-Zhang 20-day realized volatility, days to expiration (trading days)
Yang-Zhang OHLC-based realized volatility data. Note: the standalone Expected Move Calculator uses the IV-based formula (Price × IV × √(DTE/365)) — ticker EM pages use the RV-based formula.
Expected move assumes log-normal distribution. Actual moves can exceed the range, especially around events. The EM is a 1-standard-deviation estimate (~68% probability).
Uses options market pricing (IV 30d ATM) instead of historical movement. When VRP is positive, the IV-based range is wider than the RV-based range above — the difference is your statistical edge.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Viatris's expected move measures the statistically probable price range over different time periods, derived from Yang-Zhang realized volatility. Premium sellers use the expected move to position short strikes outside the probable range — if the stock stays within bounds, the option expires worthless and the seller keeps the premium. With current 20-day realized volatility at 27.3%, the expected move provides a data-driven framework for strike distance selection rather than relying on arbitrary delta targets.
Viatris's realized volatility is currently below the level options are pricing in (VRP +12.7pp as supporting context). For premium sellers using the expected move, this means strikes placed at the RV-based 1-sigma boundary effectively sit further OTM than the math alone suggests. Use the Strategy Builder to model specific trades with strikes placed at or beyond the expected move boundary.
Free embeddable tool: Expected Move Calculator — add interactive expected move data to any site. No signup, no API key.
*Assumes lognormal distribution. Real markets exhibit fat tails and skew — actual containment may differ, especially around earnings or macro events.
VTRS at $14.69 — 1σ range over 7d:$14–$16
Viatris's expected move data is being calculated from the latest Yang-Zhang realized volatility readings. The expected move shows the statistically probable price range — premium sellers use it to place strikes outside the one-standard-deviation boundary for 68%+ probability of profit.
For premium selling, place short put strikes below the 1σ (one standard deviation) expected move lower bound. This targets roughly 68% or higher probability of profit. Conservative traders use the 2σ boundary for 95% probability, though premiums collected will be smaller. Most theta gang traders target the 1.0–1.5σ range, corresponding to approximately 0.20–0.30 delta.
The expected move formula is Price × Volatility × √(time). VolRadar uses two conventions: the range table uses RV-based EM = Price × RV × √(t/252) with Yang-Zhang realized volatility (trading days), while the IV-based calculator uses EM = Price × IV × √(DTE/365) with ORATS 30-day implied volatility (calendar days). The RV-based table accounts for overnight gaps and intraday movement via Yang-Zhang, making it more accurate for stocks with significant pre/post-market activity like Viatris.
The expected move shows a statistically probable range based on past realized volatility, but the future can differ from the past. The main risks: (1) the range underestimates tail moves — 32% of the time, the stock moves outside the 1-standard-deviation boundary; (2) volatility clustering means quiet periods can end abruptly; (3) overnight gaps from news or earnings are not well captured by historical RV. Always cross-reference expected move with IV Analysis for premium adequacy and VRP for edge confirmation before placing trades.
Most premium sellers target 1σ (one standard deviation, ~68% probability of profit) as the sweet spot — it balances meaningful credit with reasonable safety. 2σ (95%) is more conservative but collects significantly less premium. For Viatris, theta gang traders selling premium typically place strikes 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations OTM, which corresponds to roughly 0.20–0.30 delta.
Yes — when Viatris's RV Ratio (0.68) shows calming volatility, the expected move may actually overstate future risk. The expected move is based on the past 20 days of realized volatility, but if the stock is trending calmer, the next 5 days may see smaller moves than the model predicts. This is favorable for premium sellers: strikes placed at the 1σ boundary may effectively be further out than the historical calculation suggests.
Viatris's expected move requires sufficient Yang-Zhang realized volatility data to calculate. This may be temporarily unavailable due to recent IPO, limited trading history, or data processing delays. The expected move will appear once enough daily price data (typically 20 trading days) is available to compute reliable volatility estimates.