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Yum! Brands — How far can YUM move? Set strikes outside the expected range.
Yum! Brands (YUM) operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and has actively traded listed options. Its RV-based expected move is ±$5.09 (3.2%) this week, calculated from 20-day Yang-Zhang realized volatility rather than inflated option premiums. RV Ratio 0.89 is above the Consumer Discretionary median of 0.81 — more volatile than peers. Conditions favor premium-selling setups outside the expected range. See IV Analysis for volatility context.
Price Range Forecast
Current: $157.90The expected move shows the range the market is pricing in for a given timeframe. Selling options outside this range gives you a statistical probability advantage.
Compare expected move to your strike selection — selling beyond 1σ means the market expects your trade to win.
EM = Price × RV 20d × √(DTE / 252)Current price, Yang-Zhang 20-day realized volatility, days to expiration (trading days)
Yang-Zhang OHLC-based realized volatility data. Note: the standalone Expected Move Calculator uses the IV-based formula (Price × IV × √(DTE/365)) — ticker EM pages use the RV-based formula.
Expected move assumes log-normal distribution. Actual moves can exceed the range, especially around events. The EM is a 1-standard-deviation estimate (~68% probability).
Uses options market pricing (IV 30d ATM) instead of historical movement. When VRP is positive, the IV-based range is wider than the RV-based range above — the difference is your statistical edge.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Yum! Brands's 5-day expected move of ±3.2% (±$5.09) is in the typical range for this stock. The probability-weighted range is $153–$163 with 68% confidence. Standard expected move environments are workable for most premium selling strategies — strikes placed 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations OTM target 68–85% probability of profit while collecting reasonable premium.
Yum! Brands's expected move measures the statistically probable price range over different time periods, derived from Yang-Zhang realized volatility. Premium sellers use the expected move to position short strikes outside the probable range — if the stock stays within bounds, the option expires worthless and the seller keeps the premium. With current 20-day realized volatility at 22.9%, the expected move provides a data-driven framework for strike distance selection rather than relying on arbitrary delta targets.
With earnings approximately 1 days away, Yum! Brands's expected move based on realized volatility does not capture the additional gap risk of the announcement. Actual earnings moves typically exceed the RV-based expected range by 1.5–3x for high earn-effect stocks. The IV-based expected move (from ATM straddle pricing) provides a more conservative estimate that incorporates the market's earnings premium. Premium sellers who trade through earnings should size positions assuming the RV-based range may be breached, or avoid positions that span the earnings date entirely.
Free embeddable tool: Expected Move Calculator — add interactive expected move data to any site. No signup, no API key.
*Assumes lognormal distribution. Real markets exhibit fat tails and skew — actual containment may differ, especially around earnings or macro events.
YUM at $157.90 — 1σ range over 7d:$152–$163
Yang-Zhang 20d RV (22.9%) · EM = Price × RV × √(t/252)
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Yum! Brands has a 1-day expected move of ±$2.28 (±1.4%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$5.09 (±3.2%). This means the stock is statistically expected to trade between $153 and $163 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
For premium selling, place short put strikes below the 1σ (one standard deviation) expected move lower bound — currently around $153 for a 5-day trade. This targets roughly 68% or higher probability of profit. Conservative traders use the 2σ boundary for 95% probability, though premiums collected will be smaller. Most theta gang traders target the 1.0–1.5σ range, corresponding to approximately 0.20–0.30 delta.
The expected move formula is Price × Volatility × √(time). VolRadar uses two conventions: the range table uses RV-based EM = Price × RV × √(t/252) with Yang-Zhang realized volatility (trading days), while the IV-based calculator uses EM = Price × IV × √(DTE/365) with ORATS 30-day implied volatility (calendar days). The RV-based table accounts for overnight gaps and intraday movement via Yang-Zhang, making it more accurate for stocks with significant pre/post-market activity like Yum! Brands.
The expected move shows a statistically probable range based on past realized volatility, but the future can differ from the past. The main risks: (1) the range underestimates tail moves — 32% of the time, the stock moves outside the 1-standard-deviation boundary; (2) volatility clustering means quiet periods can end abruptly; (3) overnight gaps from news or earnings are not well captured by historical RV. This is especially dangerous with earnings in 1 days — the RV-based expected move does not capture event gap risk, and actual earnings moves can exceed the calculated range by 2-3x. Always cross-reference expected move with IV Analysis for premium adequacy and VRP for edge confirmation before placing trades.
Yum! Brands has earnings in approximately 1 days. Expected move calculated from historical volatility does not fully capture the additional risk of earnings announcements. Actual moves around earnings often exceed the RV-based expected move by 1.5–3x. Consider using the implied volatility-based expected move (from ATM straddle pricing) for a more conservative estimate near earnings.
Most premium sellers target 1σ (one standard deviation, ~68% probability of profit) as the sweet spot — it balances meaningful credit with reasonable safety. 2σ (95%) is more conservative but collects significantly less premium. For Yum! Brands, theta gang traders selling premium typically place strikes 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations OTM, which corresponds to roughly 0.20–0.30 delta.