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Archer Daniels Midland — Your statistical edge in selling ADM options, quantified
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) operates in the Consumer Staples sector and has actively traded listed options. ADM options are mildly overpriced — IV 30d 35.1% vs 33.6% realized vol (+1.5pp). VRP sits at the 62nd percentile, trending lower. VRP of 1.1pp is below the Consumer Staples median of +6.2pp. See Premium Selling for the full setup.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
With a VRP of just +1.5pp, Archer Daniels Midland's options are only slightly overpriced relative to realized movement. Implied volatility at 35.1% barely exceeds realized vol of 33.6%, leaving minimal cushion for premium sellers. In thin-VRP environments, transaction costs and slippage can erode much of the theoretical edge. If trading at all, use the smallest position sizes, widest strike distances, and shortest time frames that still collect meaningful premium.
Archer Daniels Midland's VRP of +1.5pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (35.1% implied) and what is actually occurring (33.6% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Archer Daniels Midland's VRP trend shows compression — the edge for premium sellers is shrinking. Implied volatility is declining faster than realized vol, squeezing the premium available to sellers. Falling VRP doesn't necessarily mean the edge is gone, but it does signal deteriorating conditions. Tighten position sizes, favor shorter expirations that limit exposure to further compression, and be prepared to pause if VRP approaches zero.
Archer Daniels Midland's VRP is currently +1.5pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (35.1%) and realized volatility (33.6%). This modestly positive VRP indicates a small edge for sellers, though conditions could be stronger.
Marginally — Archer Daniels Midland's VRP of +1.5pp is slim. The theoretical edge exists but may be eroded by transaction costs. Consider only the highest-probability setups.
A declining VRP trend on Archer Daniels Midland means the edge for premium sellers is compressing. This can happen either because IV is dropping (less premium to collect) or because realized vol is rising (more risk per dollar of premium). While VRP is still positive, the direction matters — falling VRP may continue to compress. Tighten position sizes and consider shorter expirations to reduce exposure to further deterioration.
IV Rank tells you if Archer Daniels Midland's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 42.1%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +1.5pp. Together they provide a complete picture — IV Rank for historical context, VRP for current edge.