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Current FDX options analysis: Weak Signal for Selling premium on FDX. This FDX options page updates daily with IV rank, VRP, expected move, and strategy picks.
No strategies meet current entry criteria.
FedEx (FDX) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. IV Rank 51% is 22pp below the Industrials sector median of 73%. FDX put/call walls.
FDX Edge Score: 63/100 — data coverage is strong, but current trading conditions are unfavorable.
No strategies meet entry criteria. Consider waiting for better conditions.
FDX See full analysis →FDX conditions are unfavorable — but other tickers may have edge today
FDX’s setup is weak today. The Scanner surfaces S&P 500 tickers with positive VRP, high IV Rank, or active earnings crush — check those before forcing a trade on FDX.
Weak — Unfavorable for premium selling
EM = Price × RV₂₀d × √(t/252). Uses Yang-Zhang 20d realized volatility (not implied). ±1σ (68% confidence).
Conditions are weak — explore alternatives or wait for a better setup.
Strategy
Flow & Events
Planned
IV curve across expirations
Historical expected move hit rates
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Edge Score = weighted composite of VRP, IV Rank, RV Regime, Earnings Proximity, Term Structure, and Liquidity. Ranges: Defensive (0–39), Selective (40–64), Favorable (65–100).IV Rank, VRP, RV Ratio, days to earnings, backwardation/contango, bid-ask spread quality
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET)
The score reflects current market conditions and changes daily. A high score indicates favorable conditions for premium selling, not guaranteed profit. Always verify execution quality with your broker.
FedEx is trading in a normal volatility regime with an RV ratio of 0.97. The 20-day Yang-Zhang realized vol of 28.8% is roughly in line with the 60-day average of 27.6%, meaning the stock's recent price action matches historical expectations. For a industrials stock like FDX, this is a neutral signal — premium sellers can participate but should be selective with sizing and strike selection.
FDX has maintained a consistent volatility profile over the past 22 trading days. The RV ratio has held in a range of 1.11 to 1.17, with 0% of days in seller-favorable territory. Stable regimes can persist for weeks in industrials stocks, making FDX a relatively predictable candidate for premium selling strategies during this period.
Based on current realized volatility, traders can expect FDX to move approximately ±$6.44 (1.8%) per day and ±$14.40 (4.1%) over five trading days. At a stock price of $355.01, these ranges are derived from the Yang-Zhang volatility model which accounts for overnight gaps and intraday range — more accurate than simple close-to-close calculations. Premium sellers typically place short strikes outside these 1-standard-deviation ranges to achieve approximately 68%+ probability of profit.
Current conditions on FDX point toward range-bound strategies like iron condor (conservative). Normal volatility regime (ratio 0.97). Range-bound strategies with conservative sizing. Iron Condor (Conservative) benefits from time decay while defining maximum risk on both sides — a structure that suits FDX's current volatility profile where directional edge is limited but overall conditions are acceptable for premium collection.
Industrial stocks reflect economic cycle expectations, with volatility rising during recession fears. FDX is specifically an Industrials sector component tracked by VolRadar. Understanding sector-level volatility dynamics helps premium sellers diversify their positions across different correlation regimes.
VolRadar tracks FDX daily as part of the S&P 500 universe, providing Yang-Zhang (OHLC-based) realized volatility across 10, 20, and 60-day windows, RV ratio analysis, expected move calculations, and premium selling condition assessments. Note: RV values on this page use the Yang-Zhang estimator (captures overnight gaps); VRP and RV Ratio use ORATS close-to-close RV to match the IV data source. Data is updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). See the disclaimer for the full risk and regulatory notice.
More about FDX
FedEx currently shows a weak premium selling signal. Consider waiting for conditions to improve. The VRP Analysis page tracks historical premium edge trends that may signal when conditions are turning.
VolRadar tracks FedEx across 10 analysis dimensions updated daily after market close. The premium selling signal combines VRP edge, volatility regime, IV Rank, earnings proximity, and market-wide conditions into a single actionable verdict. Each sub-page goes deeper: VRP Analysis for the implied-vs-realized spread, IV Analysis for peer comparisons, Expected Move for strike placement, Earnings Crush for event history, and the Strategy Builder for modeling specific trades.
FedEx currently shows a weak premium selling signal because multiple factors are unfavorable. Consider waiting for conditions to improve.
FedEx's volatility is measured using two key metrics. The RV Ratio compares realized volatility (ORATS HV 20d) to implied volatility (IV 30d). When the RV Ratio drops below 0.85, realized movement is well below what options are pricing — the sweet spot for premium sellers. VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) measures the gap between IV and HV in percentage points — positive VRP means options are overpriced relative to actual movement. Current RV Ratio: 0.97.
FedEx's snapshot: IV Rank 51% (elevated premiums), VRP +0.9pp (slight edge), RV Ratio 0.97 (normal volatility). These three metrics work together — IV Rank shows historical context, VRP shows current overpricing, and RV Ratio shows the volatility trend. See the IV Analysis page for peer comparisons and deeper breakdown.
VolRadar provides 10 analysis pages for FedEx: Overview (this page), Premium Selling (signal and strategy verdict), VRP Analysis (volatility risk premium history), Expected Move (range and probabilities), IV Analysis (implied volatility breakdown and peer comparison), Earnings Crush (historical post-earnings IV patterns), Options Strategy Builder (18 presets + custom calculator), Covered Call Analysis (ranked by CC Score), Wheel Strategy (CSP calculator and viability), and Support & Resistance Walls (options-derived price levels).
Every options trade carries risk: undefined-risk strategies (naked puts/calls) expose you to large losses on gap moves, while defined-risk strategies cap losses but reduce premium. For FedEx, current conditions require careful selection — check the signal strength before entering positions — always size positions so no single trade risks more than 1-3% of your account. Use the Strategy Builder to model worst-case scenarios before entering.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, FedEx has a 1-day expected move of ±$6.44 (±1.8%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$14.40 (±4.1%). This means the stock is expected to trade between $341 and $369 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
Higher RV Ratio (closer to 1.0) means IV barely exceeds RV, resulting in slimmer VRP edge. Lower RV Ratio = wider gap between IV and actual movement = stronger seller edge.
View all Industrials tickers →More analysis sections planned — Dark Pool Flow, Unusual Activity, Sector Comparison, and more.
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Spread +1.0pp — IV is pricing above realized movement. This is the spread theta sellers collect as IV mean-reverts toward RV.