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Are FTV options overpriced? VRP analysis compares implied volatility to realized volatility — currently +5.1pp.
Fortive Corp. — Your statistical edge in selling FTV options, quantified
Fortive Corp. (FTV) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. FTV options are overpriced — IV 30d at 28.5% vs 23.4% realized vol (+5.1pp spread). VRP sits at the 87th percentile, trending lower. VRP of +5.1pp is above the Industrials median of +3.0pp — relatively stronger edge. FTV premium selling conditions.
Base case: FTV VRP at +5.1pp gives premium sellers a clear statistical edge — strikes outside the expected move carry that edge.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is the gap between implied volatility (what options pricing anticipates) and realized volatility (what the stock actually does). When VRP is positive, options are pricing more movement than the stock typically delivers — the canonical statistical edge premium sellers harvest. FTV's current VRP is +5.1pp — IV 30d at 28.5% versus 20-day realized vol at 23.4%.
Wide positive VRP is the necessary condition for short-premium structures (cash-secured puts, credit spreads, iron condors, strangles) to carry their statistical advantage. When VRP is near zero or negative, premium selling becomes coin-flip-grade or worse — no structural edge to lean on. FTV's VRP currently sits at the 87th percentile of its own history, firmly in the rich half — historically supportive of short-vol structures.
VRP rotates over time as markets reprice risk. For FTV's expected price range derived from this volatility, see the FTV expected move. For the 1-year IV percentile context, see the FTV IV Rank analysis.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which historically reads as a premium-selling edge in the model. A positive VRP means options pricing is running above what the stock has actually been doing.
The VRP trend and percentile show whether the model marks the premium-selling edge as confirmed or compressed.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
Hover the chart for daily IV / RV / VRP values.
See where FTV VRP edge is strongest right now across short-dated tenors — pick the DTE with the best premium-selling edge.
DTE selection often matters more than strike. This view shows where the IV/RV gap is widest — your strongest edge is the tenor with the highest VRP.
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90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
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Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Fortive Corp.'s Volatility Risk Premium stands at +5.1pp, among the wider gaps the model tracks. Implied volatility of 28.5% sits well above Fortive Corp.'s actual realized movement of 23.4%. The model reads this as a regime where the premium-selling edge is wider than the usual range — the historical context where short-vol structures show their cleanest read.
Fortive Corp.'s VRP of +5.1pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (28.5% implied) and what is actually occurring (23.4% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Fortive Corp.'s VRP trend shows compression — the model marks the premium-selling edge as narrowing. Implied volatility is declining faster than realized vol, squeezing the pricing-vs-movement gap. Falling VRP doesn't necessarily mean the edge is gone, but the regime is moving toward a tighter pricing-vs-movement gap. Uncovered short-vol structures move into a higher model-risk class as VRP approaches zero.
Yes — significantly overpriced. Fortive Corp.'s VRP of +5.1pp means implied volatility (28.5%) exceeds realized volatility (23.4%). Premium sellers profit when this spread is positive.
Fortive Corp.'s VRP is currently +5.1pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (28.5%) and realized volatility (23.4%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are priced meaningfully above actual stock movement — the model reads this as a wide pricing-vs-movement gap, the regime where the premium-selling edge is most clearly confirmed.
Yes — Fortive Corp.'s VRP of +5.1pp marks a wide pricing-vs-movement gap. The options market is pricing well above what the stock has actually been delivering. The declining trend means the gap is narrowing over recent sessions.
Fortive Corp.'s VRP is at the 87th percentile of its 252-day range — an unusually wide pricing-vs-movement gap. VRP at this level occurs roughly 13% of the time; the model reads this as a regime notably wider than the usual range.
A declining VRP trend on Fortive Corp. means the model marks the premium-selling edge as compressing. This can happen either because IV is dropping (less absolute premium pricing) or because realized vol is rising (more drawdown sensitivity per dollar of premium). While VRP is still positive, the direction matters — falling VRP shifts uncovered short-vol structures into a higher model-risk class.
IV Rank tells you if Fortive Corp.'s options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 29.7%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +5.1pp. Low IV Rank but positive VRP means premiums are cheap by history but still overpriced vs realized movement.
Fortive Corp.'s RV Ratio of 0.82 shows calming volatility — the stock is moving less than its recent baseline. Combined with a VRP of +5.1pp, this is an ideal setup: realized risk is declining while implied volatility (and therefore premiums) haven't fully adjusted down. Premium sellers collect premiums based on the market's fear level while the stock's actual behavior is becoming more subdued. This is the classic "sell expensive insurance during calm weather" setup.