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Are NDSN options overpriced? VRP analysis compares implied volatility to realized volatility — currently +7.2pp.
Nordson Corp. — Your statistical edge in selling NDSN options, quantified
Nordson Corp. (NDSN) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. NDSN options are overpriced — IV 30d at 31.8% vs 24.6% realized vol (+7.2pp spread). VRP sits at the 95th percentile, trending higher. VRP of +7.2pp is above the Industrials median of +3.0pp — relatively stronger edge. NDSN premium selling conditions.
Base case: NDSN VRP at +7.2pp gives premium sellers a clear statistical edge — strikes outside the expected move carry that edge.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is the gap between implied volatility (what options pricing anticipates) and realized volatility (what the stock actually does). When VRP is positive, options are pricing more movement than the stock typically delivers — the canonical statistical edge premium sellers harvest. NDSN's current VRP is +7.2pp — IV 30d at 31.8% versus 20-day realized vol at 24.6%.
Wide positive VRP is the necessary condition for short-premium structures (cash-secured puts, credit spreads, iron condors, strangles) to carry their statistical advantage. When VRP is near zero or negative, premium selling becomes coin-flip-grade or worse — no structural edge to lean on. NDSN's VRP currently sits at the 95th percentile of its own history, firmly in the rich half — historically supportive of short-vol structures.
VRP rotates over time as markets reprice risk. For NDSN's expected price range derived from this volatility, see the NDSN expected move. For the 1-year IV percentile context, see the NDSN IV Rank analysis.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which historically reads as a premium-selling edge in the model. A positive VRP means options pricing is running above what the stock has actually been doing.
The VRP trend and percentile show whether the model marks the premium-selling edge as confirmed or compressed.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
Hover the chart for daily IV / RV / VRP values.
See where NDSN VRP edge is strongest right now across short-dated tenors — pick the DTE with the best premium-selling edge.
DTE selection often matters more than strike. This view shows where the IV/RV gap is widest — your strongest edge is the tenor with the highest VRP.
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90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Nordson Corp.'s Volatility Risk Premium stands at +7.2pp, among the wider gaps the model tracks. Implied volatility of 31.8% sits well above Nordson Corp.'s actual realized movement of 24.6%. The model reads this as a regime where the premium-selling edge is wider than the usual range — the historical context where short-vol structures show their cleanest read.
Nordson Corp.'s VRP of +7.2pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (31.8% implied) and what is actually occurring (24.6% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Nordson Corp.'s VRP trend over the past 5-10 trading days shows expansion — the gap between implied and realized volatility is widening. This expansion is driven by calming realized volatility — the stock is moving less while IV hasn't caught up, widening the spread. Rising VRP marks a regime where the model's premium-selling edge is widening rather than compressing. Historically, VRP expansion periods tend to last 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting.
Yes — significantly overpriced. Nordson Corp.'s VRP of +7.2pp means implied volatility (31.8%) exceeds realized volatility (24.6%). Premium sellers profit when this spread is positive.
Nordson Corp.'s VRP is currently +7.2pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (31.8%) and realized volatility (24.6%). A positive VRP of this magnitude means options are priced meaningfully above actual stock movement — the model reads this as a wide pricing-vs-movement gap, the regime where the premium-selling edge is most clearly confirmed.
Yes — Nordson Corp.'s VRP of +7.2pp marks a wide pricing-vs-movement gap. The options market is pricing well above what the stock has actually been delivering. The rising trend means the gap is widening over recent sessions. Caveat: with earnings approaching in 8 days, the model marks the regime as carrying binary event risk on top of the structural reading.
Nordson Corp.'s VRP is at the 95th percentile of its 252-day range — an unusually wide pricing-vs-movement gap. VRP at this level occurs roughly 5% of the time; the model reads this as a regime notably wider than the usual range.
Nordson Corp.'s VRP has been expanding over recent sessions, meaning the gap between implied and realized volatility is growing. The model marks this as a regime where the premium-selling edge is widening, not narrowing. Rising VRP often coincides with the market maintaining elevated IV expectations while the stock settles into calmer actual movement. This window typically lasts 2-4 weeks before mean-reverting.
IV Rank tells you if Nordson Corp.'s options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 100%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +7.2pp. Both are favorable for Nordson Corp. right now, which is the strongest combination.
With earnings in approximately 8 days, Nordson Corp.'s VRP carries reduced reliability. Pre-earnings VRP often appears wide because implied volatility spikes in anticipation of the binary event while realized vol may still be subdued. This isn't the same regular ongoing pricing-vs-movement gap that persists in normal market conditions — it's event premium that resolves abruptly after the announcement. The model marks the regime as carrying binary event risk; defined-risk structures sit in a different gap-risk class than uncovered short-vol structures spanning the announcement.