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Orderly
Standard structures on the table
- Signal
- 30d IV < 90d IV
- Meaning
- Front month is not unusually inflated.
- Best fit
- Cash-secured puts, covered calls, iron condors.
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HLT 30d IV is 27.4% vs 90d IV 26.9% — front-vs-back-month curve shape.
Hilton Worldwide — 30d vs 90d slope, IV curve, and earnings-driven backwardation
The IV term structure shows how option pricing varies across maturities. When the front month is priced richer than 90D IV (backwardation), short-dated options can be unusually expensive — useful for premium sellers, provided the inflation isn't a known catalyst that will whipsaw the position.
The curve is not a direction predictor. It tells you whether the front month is rich, calm, or flat — turning that into a trade decision still needs VRP, IV Rank, and the event calendar.
See HLT's IV curve across 7 tenors, 30d vs 90d slope, and earnings-driven backwardation flag.
Term structure shows whether short-dated IV is inflated — or if the curve is calm enough for cleaner premium sales. HLT's 30d/90d slope updates daily.
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One question for a premium seller: is the front month rich enough to sell, or is it pricing a known event? The curve shape changes how the trade should be structured.
Term structure shows whether short-dated IV is inflated relative to longer-dated. Backwardation (front higher than back) often signals event/earnings risk. Contango (front lower than back) signals normal calm markets.
Backwardation = treat front-month premium as event-sensitive, prefer defined-risk. Contango = standard premium-selling strategies viable. Always check the earnings-driven warning before sizing.
spread % = (iv30d − iv90d) / iv90d × 100. Buckets (ratio iv30d/iv90d): Steep Contango (<0.90), Contango (0.90–0.98), Flat (0.98–1.02), Backwardation (1.02–1.10), Steep Backwardation (>1.10).ORATS smoothed-model IV at 7 tenors (10d, 20d, 30d, 60d, 90d, 6m, 1y) plus term_structure_slope, contango/backwardation_alert flags, and backwardation_is_earnings detection
ORATS institutional options data, updated daily after market close (~6:00 PM ET). Forward vol 30→60d computed from σ_fwd = √((T₂σ₂² − T₁σ₁²)/(T₂−T₁)).
Term structure measures the SHAPE of the IV curve, not direction. Earnings within 14 days inflate front-month IV without changing the underlying volatility regime — VolRadar surfaces an earnings-driven warning to prevent treating that elevated short-dated premium as stable seller edge. Wave 1 uses static thresholds; Wave 2 will calibrate per-ticker.
It compares short-dated implied volatility to longer-dated. A negative slope ("contango") means the front month is calmer than the back, typical of stable markets. A positive slope ("backwardation") means front-month is stressed — often event-driven (earnings, macro). The wider the spread, the stronger the signal.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Term structure is one input, not a complete trade signal. Combine with IV Rank, VRP, the underlying chart, and your own risk rules. Not investment advice.
No. Term structure measures the SHAPE of the IV curve, not where the underlying will go. Steep backwardation can persist for weeks before a binary event resolves, and contango can flip to backwardation overnight on news. Use it as positioning context, not a price predictor.
Earnings naturally inflate front-month IV without changing the underlying volatility regime. When VolRadar detects backwardation within 14 days of earnings, the card surfaces an amber warning so you don't treat the elevated front-month premium as stable seller edge — it can collapse sharply post-earnings.
Forward vol is the implied annualized volatility for the period BETWEEN two tenors (e.g. between 30d and 60d). It's a "pro" stat that helps detect market expectations for a specific window — useful when you sell a calendar spread or want to isolate event-window risk. We surface 30d→60d forward vol as a secondary stat below the chart.
Steep contango = standard premium selling viable; near-term IV is calmer than back months. Flat = the curve provides no edge, decide from VRP and IV Rank instead. Backwardation = treat front-month premium as event-sensitive, prefer defined-risk. Steep backwardation = be cautious selling near-dated naked premium without confirming the event driver.