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Are HLT options overpriced? VRP analysis compares implied volatility to realized volatility — currently +0.3pp.
Hilton Worldwide — Your statistical edge in selling HLT options, quantified
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and has actively traded listed options. HLT options are mildly overpriced — IV 30d 27.4% vs 27.1% realized vol (+0.3pp). VRP sits at the 40th percentile, trending lower. VRP of 0.3pp is below the Consumer Discretionary median of +12.4pp. HLT premium selling conditions.
Base case: HLT VRP at +0.3pp sits near zero — implied and realized are matched; no clear seller edge here.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is the gap between implied volatility (what options pricing anticipates) and realized volatility (what the stock actually does). When VRP is positive, options are pricing more movement than the stock typically delivers — the canonical statistical edge premium sellers harvest. HLT's current VRP is +0.3pp — IV 30d at 27.4% versus 20-day realized vol at 27.1%.
Wide positive VRP is the necessary condition for short-premium structures (cash-secured puts, credit spreads, iron condors, strangles) to carry their statistical advantage. When VRP is near zero or negative, premium selling becomes coin-flip-grade or worse — no structural edge to lean on. HLT's VRP currently sits at the 40th percentile of its own history, mid-range — neither structurally favorable nor unfavorable.
VRP rotates over time as markets reprice risk. For HLT's expected price range derived from this volatility, see the HLT expected move. For the 1-year IV percentile context, see the HLT IV Rank analysis.
VRP in Context
Volatility risk premium = implied vol minus realized volatility. Positive VRP = options are overpriced.
Options are priced above recent realized movement, which can give premium sellers a statistical edge. A positive VRP means you're selling options for more than they're statistically worth.
Look at the VRP trend and percentile to decide if the edge is strong enough to trade.
VRP = IV 30d − RV 20d (annualized, in percentage points)ORATS 30-day implied volatility, ORATS close-to-close 20-day realized volatility
ORATS IV data + ORATS close-to-close HV 20d
VRP is backward-looking for RV and forward-looking for IV. A positive VRP does not guarantee profitable premium selling — it measures the current pricing gap, not future outcomes.
Hover the chart for daily IV / RV / VRP values.
See where HLT VRP edge is strongest right now across short-dated tenors — pick the DTE with the best premium-selling edge.
DTE selection often matters more than strike. This view shows where the IV/RV gap is widest — your strongest edge is the tenor with the highest VRP.
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90-day VRP history chart, percentile vs 252-day range, and VRP-optimized strategy matching — in active development.
This data is free for all users. No paywall — just not built yet.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
With a VRP of just +0.3pp, Hilton Worldwide's options are only slightly overpriced relative to realized movement. Implied volatility at 27.4% barely exceeds realized vol of 27.1%, leaving minimal cushion for premium sellers. In thin-VRP environments, transaction costs and slippage can erode much of the theoretical edge. If trading at all, use the smallest position sizes, widest strike distances, and shortest time frames that still collect meaningful premium.
Hilton Worldwide's VRP of +0.3pp measures the difference between what the options market expects (27.4% implied) and what is actually occurring (27.1% realized). Premium sellers profit when this gap is positive — they collect more in premium than the stock's movement costs them. VRP varies over time and across stocks, which is why monitoring it daily helps traders identify when conditions shift in or out of their favor.
Hilton Worldwide's VRP trend shows compression — the edge for premium sellers is shrinking. Implied volatility is declining faster than realized vol, squeezing the premium available to sellers. Falling VRP doesn't necessarily mean the edge is gone, but it does signal deteriorating conditions. Tighten position sizes, favor shorter expirations that limit exposure to further compression, and be prepared to pause if VRP approaches zero.
Slightly — marginal overpricing. Hilton Worldwide's VRP of +0.3pp means implied volatility (27.4%) exceeds realized volatility (27.1%). Premium sellers profit when this spread is positive.
Hilton Worldwide's VRP is currently +0.3pp, derived from the difference between implied volatility (27.4%) and realized volatility (27.1%). This modestly positive VRP indicates a small edge for sellers, though conditions could be stronger.
Marginally — Hilton Worldwide's VRP of +0.3pp is slim. The theoretical edge exists but may be eroded by transaction costs. Consider only the highest-probability setups.
A declining VRP trend on Hilton Worldwide means the edge for premium sellers is compressing. This can happen either because IV is dropping (less premium to collect) or because realized vol is rising (more risk per dollar of premium). While VRP is still positive, the direction matters — falling VRP may continue to compress. Tighten position sizes and consider shorter expirations to reduce exposure to further deterioration.
IV Rank tells you if Hilton Worldwide's options are expensive compared to their own history — currently 50.9%. VRP tells you if they're expensive compared to what the stock ACTUALLY does — currently +0.3pp. Together they provide a complete picture — IV Rank for historical context, VRP for current edge.