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PAYC expected move — daily and weekly price ranges (1σ ±9.1% this week) for strike selection.
Paycom Software Inc. — How far can PAYC move? Set strikes outside the expected range.
Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) is a Industrials stock with actively traded listed options. Its RV-based expected move is ±$12.08 (9.1%) this week, calculated from 20-day Yang-Zhang realized volatility rather than inflated option premiums. RV Ratio 0.70 is in line with the Industrials sector. Conditions favor premium-selling setups outside the expected range. PAYC IV analysis.
Price Range Forecast
Current: $132.69Base case: PAYC expected to move ±$12.08 (9.1%) this week, but earnings in 2 days likely inflate this range.
Expected move estimates how far PAYC is likely to travel within a given window — the canonical 1σ range that contains roughly 68% of outcomes. It bounds the price corridor premium sellers reference when placing short strikes outside likely price action. PAYC's 5-day expected move currently sits at ±$12.08 (9.1%), derived from 20-day Yang-Zhang realized volatility.
Premium sellers use this range to set credit-spread wings, iron condor wide bounds, and cash-secured put ladders. When implied volatility overprices realized movement (positive VRP), short strikes placed outside the expected range carry a statistical edge. PAYC's current VRP of +22.1pp indicates options are overpricing realized movement and short-premium structures carry an edge.
Expected move scales with √time: the daily move is much smaller than the weekly. For broader context on how PAYC options are priced overall, see the PAYC IV analysis and PAYC VRP analysis.
Yang-Zhang 20d RV (52.6%) · EM = Price × RV × √(t/252)
The expected move shows the range the market is pricing in for a given timeframe. Selling options outside this range gives you a statistical probability advantage.
Compare expected move to your strike selection — selling beyond 1σ means the market expects your trade to win.
EM = Price × RV 20d × √(DTE / 252)Current price, Yang-Zhang 20-day realized volatility, days to expiration (trading days)
Yang-Zhang OHLC-based realized volatility data. Note: the standalone Expected Move Calculator uses the IV-based formula (Price × IV × √(DTE/365)) — ticker EM pages use the RV-based formula.
Expected move assumes log-normal distribution. Actual moves can exceed the range, especially around events. The EM is a 1-standard-deviation estimate (~68% probability).
The calculator below uses options market pricing (IV 30d ATM) instead of historical movement. When VRP is positive, the IV-based range is wider than the RV-based range above — the difference is your statistical edge.
Quantitative screening, not investment advice. Verify with your broker. Disclaimer
Paycom Software Inc.'s 5-day expected move of ±9.1% (±$12.08) is wider than typical, indicating elevated realized volatility. This translates to a probable range of $121–$145 over the next week at one standard deviation (68% probability). A wide expected move means more premium is available for sellers placing strikes outside the range, but it also means the stock has been making larger moves recently — position sizing should account for the increased realized risk.
Paycom Software Inc.'s expected move measures the statistically probable price range over different time periods, derived from Yang-Zhang realized volatility. Premium sellers use the expected move to position short strikes outside the probable range — if the stock stays within bounds, the option expires worthless and the seller keeps the premium. With current 20-day realized volatility at 52.6%, the expected move provides a data-driven framework for strike distance selection rather than relying on arbitrary delta targets.
Paycom Software Inc.'s RV Ratio of 0.70 indicates calming realized volatility — the stock is settling into smaller moves than its recent baseline. In calming regimes, the expected move may actually overestimate future movement, giving premium sellers an additional edge: strikes placed at the 1σ boundary may effectively be further OTM than the math suggests. This is the environment where range-bound strategies thrive, as the probability of price staying within the expected range is historically higher than the theoretical 68%.
Based on Yang-Zhang realized volatility, Paycom Software Inc. has a 1-day expected move of ±$5.40 (±4.1%) and a 5-day expected move of ±$12.08 (±9.1%). This means the stock is statistically expected to trade between $121 and $145 over the next week with approximately 68% probability.
For premium selling, place short put strikes below the 1σ (one standard deviation) expected move lower bound — currently around $121 for a 5-day trade. This targets roughly 68% or higher probability of profit. Conservative traders use the 2σ boundary for 95% probability, though premiums collected will be smaller. Most theta gang traders target the 1.0–1.5σ range, corresponding to approximately 0.20–0.30 delta.
The expected move formula is Price × Volatility × √(time). VolRadar uses two conventions: the range table uses RV-based EM = Price × RV × √(t/252) with Yang-Zhang realized volatility (trading days), while the IV-based calculator uses EM = Price × IV × √(DTE/365) with ORATS 30-day implied volatility (calendar days). The RV-based table accounts for overnight gaps and intraday movement via Yang-Zhang, making it more accurate for stocks with significant pre/post-market activity like Paycom Software Inc..
The expected move shows a statistically probable range based on past realized volatility, but the future can differ from the past. The main risks: (1) the range underestimates tail moves — 32% of the time, the stock moves outside the 1-standard-deviation boundary; (2) volatility clustering means quiet periods can end abruptly; (3) overnight gaps from news or earnings are not well captured by historical RV. This is especially dangerous with earnings in 2 days — the RV-based expected move does not capture event gap risk, and actual earnings moves can exceed the calculated range by 2-3x. Always cross-reference expected move with IV Analysis for premium adequacy and VRP for edge confirmation before placing trades.
Paycom Software Inc. has earnings in approximately 2 days. Expected move calculated from historical volatility does not fully capture the additional risk of earnings announcements. Actual moves around earnings often exceed the RV-based expected move by 1.5–3x. Consider using the implied volatility-based expected move (from ATM straddle pricing) for a more conservative estimate near earnings.
Paycom Software Inc.'s expected move is wider than usual because it's derived from realized volatility, which reflects actual recent price movement. Upcoming earnings in 2 days may be contributing to elevated realized volatility as the market anticipates the announcement. A wider expected move means premium sellers can place strikes further OTM while still collecting meaningful premium — but the wider range also signals genuine risk.
Paycom Software Inc.'s positive VRP of +22.1pp means implied volatility overprices the expected range. The RV-based expected move reflects what the stock IS doing, while IV reflects what the market FEARS it will do. When VRP is positive, the gap between these two gives premium sellers an edge: the IV-based range (wider) is too pessimistic, while the RV-based range (narrower) is closer to reality. Selling strikes at or beyond the RV-based expected move boundary captures this VRP edge.
Free embeddable tool: Expected Move Calculator — add interactive expected move data to any site. No signup, no API key.
*Assumes lognormal distribution. Real markets exhibit fat tails and skew — actual containment may differ, especially around earnings or macro events.
PAYC at $132.69 — 1σ range over 7d:$119–$146